New house sales fall again, units boom

From the HIA:

New home sales climbed off the mat in October following a very weak period in mid-2012, said the Housing Industry Association, the voice of Australia’s residential building industry.

“A 3.4 per cent increase in new home sales in October is a modest result, but at least it is a move in the right direction,” said HIA Chief Economist, Harley Dale.

The HIA New Home Sales report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, showed a substantial 31.4 per cent increase in the sale of multi-units in October and this delivered the headline rise for the month. Detached house sales fell by 2.0 per cent in October, a disappointing result which marked the fifth decline in six months.

“Scratching below the surface, new home sales in October were a mixed bag. Within the weak headline result for detached houses there were modest increases for New South Wales, South Australia, and Western Australia, albeit from very low bases,” Harley Dale said. “Detached house sales in Victoria were a big drag on the aggregate result in October, slumping by 12.1 per cent. If you take that result out of the mix then detached house sales actually posted a rise of 2.4 per cent.”

“We need to see evidence emerge in coming months of a stronger, broader based recovery for new home building,” Harley Dale said. “The fact we don’t have that evidence now is precisely why the Reserve Bank of Australia should cut interest rates next Tuesday.”

“Further action on rates next week would bolster the chances that we see a sustained recovery in new home building in 2013. Right now the jury is still out on that,” added Harley Dale.

In October 2012 the number of seasonally adjusted new detached house sales increased by 4.7 per cent in New South Wales, 3.2 per cent in South Australia, and 3.7 per cent in Western Australia.

Detached house sales fell by 12.1 per cent in Victoria and were down by 4.3 per cent in Queensland.

Aside from the Victorian result described earlier by UE, not bad but a glance at the chart shows we are still well short of a trend break. and the labour-intensive detached housing sector is still struggling ? Here is the how much:

And how big was the units spike? This big:

2012-10 NHSS National Media Release (1).pdf

Comments

  1. So……

    New dwelling supply ~ 13000 per month (on a 3yr av of ~12000 per month)

    New dwelling demand ~ 5000 per month

    ……..mmm

  2. Another sign that something is very wrong here, as I believe that detached houses, not units, are the preferred dwelling type of most Australians. Nor are these units some sort of affordability solution, not with starting prices at around $400k for 1 bedders.

    As ever, what is needed is a fall in land prices to allow a recovery in house construction.

    • Units located in or close to the CBDs, or on transport hubs not too far away, are, by far, the preferred dwelling type for young immigrants and for OS investors. So, who do you think is buying huh?

  3. University of Australian Real Estate
    Bachelor of Real Estate and Property Expectation Management – 2013
    Programme Structure:

    YEAR ONE

    First Semester: –

    In the First Semester of Year 1 all students will be required to complete the core subjects for the Programme plus 2 Field Practical exercises intended to ensure that students have the appropriate values and ethos to make a contribution in the Real Estate and Property Development Sector. Completion of all units is compulsory with a Field Practical Grade Average of not less than 65% across the two examinations.

    Discovering Tragedy in Property: Where to Find a Tragic and How to Work Them (BUSS 1096)
    Foundations of Real Estate and Property Fraud (COML 1002)
    Accounting for Property Losses and Negative Gearing (ACCT 1001)
    Foundation Bullshitting and Bullshitting Systems in Real Estate (PUBL 1087)
    • Field Practical (A) Year 1: Stool Presentation for First Home Buyers (TUDD1001)
    • Field Practical (B) Year 1: Feigning Interest in the Recently Renting (RENT1001)

    Second Semester: –

    In the Second Semester of Year 1 students are introduced to more complex themes and approaches, with critical approaches to contemporary theory development encouraged and explored. Students are brought into a greater awareness of the role of Real Estate and Property Development in contemporary society. The Semester 2 Field Practical exercises are designed to embed practical competencies and need to be completed with a Field Practical Grade Average of not less than 65% across the two examinations.

    Principles of Business and Social & Moral Denial (BUSS 1075)
    Principles of Economic Myopia and Shortage Fabrication (ECON 1019)
    Quantitative Methods for Public Bamboozlement (MATH 1057)
    Management Accountability Deniability and Speciousness (BUSS 1052)
    Psychopathy, Sociopathy and Real Estate Outcomes for Practitioners (PSYC 1192)
    • Field Practical (C) Year 1: Pressure Applications For Mum and Dad Investors (KIDS1001)
    • Field Practical (B) Year 1: Reality Discrepancy and Realtor Yield Estimation For Housing Investors (BULL1001)

    YEAR TWO

    First Semester

    In the First Semester of Year 2 students develop a nuanced understanding of themes, circumstances, client types and issues to broaden their ability to identify value propositions for the Real Estate Industry. Students are required to complete at least two of the four available client understanding modules. Also in this term students are introduced to complex financial analyses and guided through values enhancing concepts and paradigms. In Year Two a single Field Practical exercise will see students (in teams) modelling a real world development opportunity for a range of clients and buyer types. Students require a Field Practical Grade Average of not less than 65%.

    Fundamentals of Property Fraud (COML 2028)
    Applied Bullshitting: Creaming Buyers and Sellers (MARK 2004)
    Client Understanding 1: The Depths of Baby Boomer Greed (BOOM2010)
    Client Understanding 2: Believers in Advertising – Young and Old (SUCK2901)
    Client Understanding 3: The Desperation of New Migrants (EASY2744)
    Client Understanding 4: Families, Needs and Realtor Information Management Leverage (FAMI2006)
    Land Use, Planning and Sustainability: Letting the Buyer Beware (AGEN 2011)
    Property Valuation Enhancement & Taxation Minimisation (BUSS 2097)
    Real Estate Finance for Buyers 1: Bridging the Reality Discrepancy in Loan Application Forms (REAL2765)
    Capital Appreciation at the Margins: ‘It’s Either You or Them’ (CUNT2314)

    Field Development Practical (Group) Year 2: Choose from new development locations in NSW, VIC, QLD, SA, TAS, NT, ACT and WA. Students will plan, organise and sell and finance for clients from the lower socio-economic profile (on rolling temporary employment contracts as labourers or shop assistants, with $14000 deposit, 2.3 children, and requiring a range of community services).

    Second Semester

    Elective: Weekday Morning TV & Property Promotion (INAN3478)
    Elective : Soft Sell Radio Jingles for Property (SMOO4881)
    Elective: Outstanding, Attractive, Value & Stunning – Language and Real Estate (BULL3568)
    Elective: Realtors – Ignoring and Returning Calls at the Most Inopportune Time (CALL3715)
    Advanced Client Understanding 1: The Genuinely Wealthy – Affected Disdain Projection (DISD3777)
    Property Management and Ignoring Tenants (AGEN 1077)
    Building Evaluation for Property: Maximising Clag & Balsa (BUIL 2084)
    Real Estate Finance for Buyers 2: Quantum LVR Offsets on Long-Term Capital Appreciation Projections (REAL2766)

    THIRD YEAR

    In the First Semester of Year 3 students will apply their comprehension of the industry and its issues to more complex and strategic themes, incorporating range of media to enhance long term industry viability and social cohesiveness.

    First Semester

    Public Policy, Politics and Real Estate (PPPR3000)
    Statutory Valuations & Payoff Tactics (MGMT3002)
    Lobbying the Political Process (LUNC3001)
    Misinformation and the Media (MISM3002)
    Real Estate Discontent Suppression: Bots, Cookies and Defamation Threats (RSEC3096)
    Property Development: Leveraging the Margin Between Buyer Perception and Delivery (FRAU3091)
    Property Investment: Boasting, Ostentation & Public Smugness (WANK3016)
    Free elective: Flirting with Buyers for Organisational Effectiveness (WANK3017)

    Second Semester

    Property Malpractice (BUSS 3011)
    Property Research and Plausible Deniability (MEDI 3062)
    Property, People, Place and Pooh in the Letterbox (POOH 3092)
    Elective: Australian Property Shortage – Selected Statistics & Global Comparisons (SPEC7601)
    Elective: Australian Real Estate and Property in a Global Context – Spain, Ireland & New Zealand (FORR8955)
    The RBA – Monetary Policy for Real Estate Effectiveness (MONP3072)
    Land Banking, Risk Reward and Public Awareness (BULL3470)
    Land Supply and Demand in the Most Sparsely Populated Continent on Earth (BULL3471)
    Local Government and Development
    State Governments: When You Have Them by The Fiscal Nads (NADS3222)
    ‘You Should do What We Did’ – Historical Debt Access and Real Estate Prices 1980-2010 (HIST3111)
    ‘It’s What the Market Will Bear’ – Blame Apportionment & Morality (SOCI3112)
    ‘Your Aren’t Entitled to it’ – Intergenerational Perceptions of Rights to Risk Reward (RIPP3225)
    Immigration and Support for Real estate Demand (IMMI3679)

    • Jeez Gunna,

      That is an effort..and hilarious

      In recognition of said effort and as head of department you are now officially, Professor Gunnamatta.

      • Dear Professor Gunnamatta,

        I am disappointed not to see the previously advertised….

        “Dropping your strides and being discovered by a property cactus (BUSS 1055)”

        ..in the 2013 ciriculum.

        Sincerely

        Superkeen 2013 1st Yr Student.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        I am seeing demand for the full Masters course….gimme a couple of hours – I am a tad busy

    • Comedy Gold bro! YOU.ARE.ON.A.ROLL

      I would like to copy and paste this and send it around to everyone at my work-but alas, it is too long, and most won’t get the joke anyway as they are bubble-denialists.

      You forgot this elective:

      The science of piggy-backing on the international student industry: The art of screwing the offspring of wealthy foreign families for all they are worth (STUSCREW3168)

      or..

      Real Estate & Culture Transformation elective:
      Pricing bogans out of the rental market, Clayton-a case study of “De-boganisation”: Where did all the Mario’s and their Monaros go? Looks at the transformation of the bogan suburb of Clayton, into an overpriced, overdeveloped, semi-sophisticated (almost) cosmopolitan hub.

  4. GunnamattaMEMBER

    University of Australian Real Estate

    Bachelor of Real Estate and Property Expectation Management (Honours) – 2013

    The Honours year is available to students achieving a distinction average over the undergraduate course. It consists of 6 advanced units and a compulsory dissertation and thesis on the subject

    ‘There has Never Been a Better Time to Buy’

    First Semester

    Lies, Damned Lies, and Real Estate Auction Statistics – Seasonal Adjustment for Values Based Outcomes (SOLD4001)
    The Housing Construction Rebound and Australia’s Long Term Economic Outlook (UNEM4002)
    ‘Nobody is Complaining About Their House Values Going up’ – The Role of Real Estate in Crafting a Values Based Electorate (JWHL4003)
    ‘We’ve had a few buyers interested’ – Ritualistic Forms of Psychic Masturbation in Real Estate (PSYC4004)

    Second Semester

    ‘It’s a Long Way to the shop if You Want a Sausage Roll – So Buy Something Closer’ – Real Estate in Popular Culture (ACDC4005)
    Stunted Trees, Itchy Skin & Behavioural Abnormalities – Matching Potential Buyers to Brownfield Redevelopment Projects (JIBB4006)
    Fibonacci & Housing Shortfall Projection Algorithms (FIBB4007)
    Negative Gearing and Cost Effectiveness as a Federal Budget Outlay (GOVT4008)

  5. GunnamattaMEMBER

    and there’s more!

    University of Australian Real Estate

    Master of Real Estate and Property Expectation Management – 2013

    The Masters year is available to students achieving a distinction average over the undergraduate course, and completing the Honours year with a distinction average. It is focussed on delivery of strategic industry value adding outcomes and consists of 7 dissertation level Units, a 100 thousand word thesis on ‘If you don’t get in now…..’ and participation in the social life art production of ‘Dropping your strides and being discovered by a property cactus’

    First Semester

    Electro Brain Stem Applications and their use in Generating a Societally More Satisfactory Property Auction Performance (ELEC 4001)

    Gitchy Gitchy Goo: Engagement with Banking Regulatory Authorities for Real Estate Industry Outcomes (GITC 4002)

    One Debt to Rule Them All and in the Darkness Bind Them: Incremental Debt Propagation – Opportunities and Risks for Future Real Estate Industry Development (DEBT 4003)

    Second Semester

    Viagra, Prozac, Botox and Silicon: The Lessons of Sexuality Based Enhancement for the Contemporary Real Estate Sector (SEXS4004)

    Funding Social Infrastructure in the 21st Century: How Much Should the Real Estate Sector Bear? (BEAR 4005)

    Multi-Generational Duration Derivative Formation and Quantum Marketing (QUAN 4006)

    Nano-Modelling and Mortgage Fragmentation Opportunities (NANO 4007)

  6. Could this be the start of the pop?……….

    I think we could use a screamometer and measure the noise the sprukers make to gauge how close to property carnage we are.