DEEWR leading employment index rises for fourth straight month

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By Leith van Onselen

The Department of Education, Employment & Workplace Relations (DEEWR) today released its leading indicator of employment (release below), which registered its fourth consecutive monthly rise (see below chart).

In its explanation of the result, DEEWR seems fairly cautious in declaring that the employment market is improving:

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DEEWR’s Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment (Indicator) has risen for the fourth consecutive month in November 2012, after falling for seven consecutive months previously. It is still too early to confirm that a renewed quickening in the pace of employment growth above its long-term trend rate of 1.6 per cent per annum is in prospect, because the Indicator has risen for fewer than six consecutive months. Meanwhile, cyclical employment has continued its downward trajectory after a pause recently, having fallen for six consecutive months since May 2012.

The official ABS labour market results for October will be released tomorrow, which should provide more colour on how the employment market is travelling.

Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.

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DEEWR Leading Employment Index (November 2012)

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.