Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst.
Both the official and HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMIs showed that despite some sequential improvement, new export orders remain in contractionary territory.
And although the official PMI shows a somewhat brighter picture, it is probably because of the seasonality present in the official data. Looking at export orders for each individual year, we can see that the seasonal pick-up this year in new export orders which is normally associated with Christmas orders is anything but fantastic:
Anecdotal evidence also confirms that while activity could be picking up, partly on seasonality (as previously noted), the improvements on a sequential basis are anything but great. Canton Fair, China’s largest trade fair, saw fewer participants and lower turnover according to China Daily:
The 112th session of the Canton Fair, China’s largest trade fair, witnessed a decline in both participants and turnover, according to the event’s closing news conference onSunday.
Statistics from the fair’s organizer show that, as of Saturday, 188,145 overseas participants from 211 countries and regions have signed into the fair, said spokesman Liu Jianjun.
The figure was 10.26 percent lower than the last session, in spring, and 10.5 percent lower than the corresponding period last year, he said.