Treasury defends its optimism

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From the AFR:

Assistant Treasurer David Bradbury has defended Treasury’s modelling of economic growth, dismissing independent modelling that shows Labor’s $1.1billion surplus could turn into a $7.6 billion deficit as growth slows further.

…“These are the best estimates, the forecasts are based on the information available to Treasury.They are broadly consistent, they are very much consistent with the forecasts of the IMF and the World Bank,’’ he said.

“As the IMF suggests and points to, the Australian economy will continue to outperform in terms of growth all of our major competitors, not just this year but moving into next year as well.”

Hmmm, the IMF and World Bank rely heavily on Treasury input to formulate their forecasts, which are then pointed at by Treasury as justifying the same forecasts.

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Another rhetorical high point for public discussion!

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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