The Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) has released data on housing transfers and mortgage lodgements for the month of September.
According to DERM, the number of housing transfers and mortgage lodgements rose by 0.2% and 3.0% respectively in September 2012, and were up 4.6% and 3.3% respectively on September 2011.
You’ll notice from the above chart that July witnessed a surge in transfers and mortgages, which rose by 32% and 35% respectively over the month before retracing -21% and -25% respectively in August.
One explanation for July’s surge is that the Queensland Government reintroduced stamp duty concessions for owner-occupiers from 1 July, which stimulated buyer demand. The return of the concession, which was axed by the former Government in August 2011, meant that home buyers, who are not first-timers or investors, would save up to $7,000 via lower stamp duties.
June’s figures were also the worst June results on record, suggesting that buyers went on strike in the month leading-up to the start of the concession.
The latest RP Data report also illustrated the big jump in Brisbane housing transactions following the re-introduction of the concession, with volumes up 61% in July versus June (see below chart).
Clearly, the Queensland housing market is highly sensitive (at least in the short-term) to government incentives. It will, therefore, be interesting to see whether the cancellation of the first home owners’ grant on pre-existing dwellings from October, replaced with an increased grant on newly constructed dwellings, has much effect on housing turnover and prices in the months ahead.
Finally, the below chart shows the same transfers and mortgage lodgements data on a rolling annual basis, which removes the month-to-month volatility:
You can see that Queensland transfers and mortgage lodgements have been in an up-trend since late-2011. However, they remain highly depressed, tracking -31% below the 12-year average.
Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.
