The August PMI is out and shows some improvement in a slowing recession, though the trend still looks awful:
In an encouraging sign, new orders were up strongly to only shrinking slightly!
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If we look at the sectoral split we get a hint of what may be happening:
The three big improvers are all retail facing food, clothes, furniture and printing. We may be enjoying a bit of an inventory build following the last few months of carbon rebate retail bounty.
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It’s sure isn’t exports: