The Australian Conference Board Leading Index for July was released earlier today with a zero reading, although last months print was revised up from 0.2% to 0.5%:
Here’s the details of the release:
- The Conference Board LEI for Australia was unchanged in July following two consecutive increases. Upward revisions were made to the index from March to June as actual data for the quarterly sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus became available.
- In July, the gains in stock prices and money supply* were offset by negative contributions from rural goods exports*, the yield spread, and building approvals. The six-month change in the leading economic index has turned slightly negative, contracting by 0.2 percent (about a -0.5 percent annual rate) between January and July this year, a moderate improvement from the decline of 1.1 percent (about a -2.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.
- In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have become almost balanced in the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in July. Between January and July 2012, the coincident economic index increased by 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate), about the same rate of increase as for the previous six months.
- Moreover, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. At the same time, real GDP increased by 2.6 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, down from 5.6 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2012.
- The LEI for Australia was unchanged in July after increases in the past two months. Although its six-month growth rate is slightly negative, the rate of decline has moderated in July compared to earlier this year. Meanwhile, The CEI for Australia remained on a slightly rising trend through July, and its six-month growth rate has been fairly steady since the beginning of 2012. Taken together, the recent behavior in the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will continue to grow at a moderate pace in the near term.
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Interestingly, most of the leading indicators increased in July, with share prices being the largest, followed by the money supply figures, whilst most coincident indicators increased, namely household gross disposable income, employed persons and retail trade.