ANZ fires ABS labour data

It seems MB readers are not the only ones incredulous at today’s ABS Labour Force survey. ANZ is out quick smart with an unusually blunt note dismissing the entire release. Worth a read.

Labour Force Aug 12 Quick Reaction

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

      • “Rate cuts are no less close today than yesterday”

        The currency markets would indicate otherwise

      • Aussie Contrarian

        “Rate cuts are no less close today than yesterday”

        Hmmm, not sure about that. The IR futures market has repriced. Rate cuts slightly less likely now, although personally I think they will cut this year.

        “The job losses are coming in the months ahead as mining plans shutter.”

        Doesn’t the mining sector employ relatively few people?

        We’ve been hearing of some pretty large job cuts in the financial, retail and other sectors all year, but I guess those are being off-set by lots of smaller hirings that we don’t hear much about, since the UE rate is still falling despite the large job cuts announced.

        And since the mining sector employs few people, I doubt they’re going to be able to announce job cuts on the scale of what we’ve already seen in the wider economy.

        • If you go back three weeks, rate markets were forecasting one cut.

          Look at the macro. The economy has clearly slowed in the last month or so. On top of that the ToT shock is going to hit income everywhere in the next six months.

          Governments are also going to cut more.

          Mining plans are being cut.

          Ignore Macrobears. He is ignorant. Most very public bulls are engaged in nothing more than sci-ops to support their own businesses. Most them told the RBA to hike last year when it needed to cut. Now they’re claiming that the growth resulting from those cuts writes off those who argued for them. It’s quite something, really.

          I’m not calling a calamity. I have no interest in doing so. But unless there is much stimulus, here and/or abroad, this economy is going to slow further.

          • Aussie Contrarian

            “If you go back three weeks, rate markets were forecasting one cut.”

            Sorry, I was replying to your comment that rate cuts are no less close today than *yesterday* (I agree they’re closer than they were three weeks ago).

            “Ignore Macrobears. He is ignorant. Most very public bulls are engaged in nothing more than sci-ops”

            I see, I wasn’t aware of that.

            “unless there is much stimulus, here and/or abroad, this economy is going to slow further”

            Has it slowed at all? Sure, last quarter was down a bit from the previous quarter, but annual GDP is pretty high, above trend in fact.

    • i wonder what else they (ANZ) are seeing? maybe a few household and SME credit issues that dont align with a 5.1% UE rate?

  1. Aussie Contrarian

    Can somebody check the spam filter? Tried to reply twice to H&H above but it vanished into the ether!

    Mod: cleared