More resources gloom

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The RBA today brought forward its estimate for the mining boom peak. From The Oz today comes more confirmation that the ground is shifting under the resources boom:

Analysts think that not all of the projects in the government’s $500 billion pipeline will happen without a major recovery in commodity prices or an increased willingness by banks to lend. That is because around half of the money is tied to projects that still need financing or the final go-ahead from regulators or company bosses.

“That part of the pipeline will be going through some very serious reconsideration at this time,” said Mike Elliott, leader of Ernst & Young’s global mining and metals team.

Already, some flagship projects included in the government’s forecast have landed on the scrap heap. In May, the Queensland government said it won’t proceed with a planned $US9 billion ($8.6 billion) expansion of Abbot Point, Australia’s most northerly coal port.

Analysts also think several other big projects, such as BHP Billiton’s near-$30 billion expansion of the Olympic Dam copper and uranium mine in South Australia and Xstrata’s $7 billion Wandoan coal development in Queensland could be delayed.

UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates only $284 billion will be spent on the mining and energy projects listed by Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics between this year and 2017.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.