Find below NAB’s China Monthly by James Glenn. There’s not a lot that’s new for regular readers but it is useful wrap of the data flow. It is also striking just how differently mainstream Western economists see China versus a contrarian like Michael Pettis. For Glenn (and Phat Dragon) it’s all about monetary easing leading to a pick up in growth and inflation via the usual credit channels. For Pettis, it’s the exact opposite, the high savings rate boosting consumption and inflation only if interest rates remain high and household income gets a kick along. It’s never a great idea to look for precise outcomes in economics so it’s not so much that either case is wrong as it is a question of timing when either or both is true!
