DEEWR leading job index falls

Wednesday 11 July 2012

The DEEWR leading index of employment fell again this month.

I’m not sure how useful this index is now as a leading indicator. As you can see, this last cycle it has lagged changes. I suspect this because, like many other indicators it is overly leveraged to the struggling consumer economy, certainly via the consumer confidence index which makes up 15% of the DEEWR index, and perhaps via the Dun and Bradstreet Employment Expectations Index, which makes up another 25%.

Anyways, it’s a seven month bleed now.

Jul12LIOE

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.