ANZ sees housing shortage in Victoria

Find below the ANZ’s quarterly housing chartbook. There are lot’s of interesting charts in the presentation. Contrary to many other research houses, ANZ has refused to budge from its forecast of an imminent and immense housing shortage (see above). Not to be left out, even Victoria has a shortage of around 30,000 homes which is expected to grow to 40,000 by 2013. Apparently.

Australian Housing Chartbook July 2012

David Llewellyn-Smith


  1. russellsmith55

    Are they particularly exposed to Melbourne price falls, or are they just stubborn/refusing to admit original forecasts were so wrong?

    • Russ

      ANZ are weighted towards Melbourne property. In 2009 I think they mobilised a mobile origination network mainly in Melbourne. What do you think happened

      • russellsmith55

        Thanks, that explains a lot then 🙂 Sounds like a stock that might be drawing some short-selling attention over the next 6-months then too.

  2. Funny that those red “underlying demand” lines seem to all be random with only one thing in common – they are all higher than the current and future completions.

    I’d like to see some details on just how they calculate this demand. They’re fooling themselves if they actually believe Victoria has a housing shortage.

  3. More economists doing their job as propagandists on behalf of their employer.

    Too many of the peasants are mesmerised by the job title to ever see through it, but economists are the way politicians and business justify ripping them off and herding them around.

  4. George Locust

    To paraphrase Winston Churchill , banks use statistics the same way a drunkard uses a lamp post. For support, not illumination.

  5. I am sure ANZ’s Mike Smith will bet one of his Aston Martins on the fact that there is a shortage in Melbourne. /sarc

    (BTW, there may be an oversupply of one bunglow in Toorak soon – One Mr Mike Smith is getting ready to bail out of Australia and into the CEO’s seat at Barclays)

  6. Mmmmm….. good news for my ANZ PUTS.
    Really, good to see the denial and delusion in full swing, as facing reality would simply bring ANZ down. My guess is that as Spain, Italy and the EU fall apart, so will the ANZ first.

  7. Just Dismal 2

    How about this: “investment-driven” high price has reduced demand, and young people (the marginal buyers) are coping by staying at mum’s place to satisfy their housing needs. Hence shortage as measured by needs and glut measured by weak demand currently co-exist.
    Therefore the only sensible way is for prices to drop, so market balance can be re-established.

  8. tsport100MEMBER

    Isn’t ANZ the weakest of the big 4? (they certainly didn’t waste any time being the first Australian bank to issue covered bonds) So long as the APRA plays along with the cover-up, we’ll never know when the bomb is ticking loudest until it explodes.

  9. While the music plays, the banks will dance. They claim to have tightened their lending criteria; the reverse is soon to be revealed.

    “Play it, Sam.” Humphrey Bogart, Casablanca.