AIG Performance of Construction Index continues to mislead

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The AIG Performance of Construction Index is out today with more bad news for the sector:

The Australian Industry Group Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®) in conjunction with the Housing Industry Association registered 34.8 in June, just 0.1 points above the reading in May. The index has now remained below the critical 50 point level separating expansion from contraction for 25 consecutive months.

This is getting kind of silly. This is the chart that bugs me:

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I don’t dispute that dwelling construction is in a slump but the engineering line is plain wrong. The recent ABS job vacancies release makes the point:

Construction vacancies have bounced nicely after a post stimulus stumble, largely, no doubt, on the back of the engineering construction associated with the mining boom.

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This index needs a renovation.

Pci June Report Final (1)

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.