I like to track the weekly Roy Morgan consumer confidence numbers because they offer an immediate read on the effects of specific events. For instance the index recently got hammered as European and particularly Greek concerns suddenly re-emerged. Late yesterday the weekly data was released showed a decent bounce, up 1.8%:
And the reason? Last week’s positive data flow:
Consumer Confidence is at 110.7pts (up 1.8pts in a week) according to the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted last weekend (June 9/10, 2012). Consumer Confidence is now 2.4pts higher than a year ago June 11/12, 2011 (108.3).
The rise in confidence this week has been driven by improving sentiment about personal financial situations and also about the Australian economy over the next 12 months and despite a large fall in those saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items — down 7% to 53%.
Australians have gained confidence about their personal finances over the next 12 months with 37% (up 3%) saying they expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially while 20% (down 4%) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Now 29% (up 2%) of Australians say their family is ‘better off’ financially compared to a year ago while 30% (down 3%) say their family is ‘worse off’ financially.
Australians confidence about Australia’s economy over the next twelve months has risen with 28% (up 2%) expecting Australia to have ‘good times’ economically over the next 12 months compared to 34% (down 5%) of Australians that expect ‘good times’.
Over the next five years more Australians (33%, unchanged) expect Australia’s economy to have ‘good times’ economically compared to 21% (down 1%) that expect ‘bad times’.
However, a decreasing majority of Australians 53% (down 7%) say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 21% of Australians (up 3%) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
Of course, much of such movement can be ascribed to “noise”. Moreover, given Glenn Stevens’ speech last week, which argued as we have that the growth drivers in the economy are inexorably shifted away from yesteryear’s consumption surge, one wonders if what is currently seen as suppressed consumer confidence levels could rather be seen as normal in the new normal.
Anyways, Westpac is also out today and we’ll no doubt see another fall there.
