May AFG mortgage data seasonal adjustments

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Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)

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        • LOL – I’m glad that in the end you saw it my way, and I thank you for that. Perhaps 99:1 was a little harsh, although I was referring to the commentors and not you.
          I did my best re. the market share increase, I let LVO know, Nathan know, and I even tweeted CJ – what more can I do.

          From my perspective I didn’t think that May was that great, so I’m not totally convinced of the size of the AFG result, although I can see that those daily indices are predomintaly green, and the quarterly losses (moving) are falling apart from Melbourne.

          The interest rate cuts are positive for house prices, but calling the future is a month by month proposition IMHO.

    • Why, what does humility achieve.

      Good post Nathan. BTW AFG started in WA and so are quite strong in that state. They are also strong in QLD, but other states less so. It maybe that they have picked up market share in those states – I don’t have that info.

  1. For those readers in NZ, we have this today “The IMF said there is a medium likelihood of declining export demand and deteriorating terms of trade, which would reduce GDP growth in New Zealand. That could lead to a fall in household income, which would lead to lower house prices….

  2. The last week has been better for the bulls — quite a few green days on the RP Data daily index. But I’m intrigued by the back series and what another poster referred to (on another thread) as a mini-cycle in the 5-cap city series:

    http://www.rpdata.com/research/back_series.html

    It’s there in the black line. Does anyone else see the mini-cycle and — possibly silly question here — can anyone explain it?

    • Yes, I’ve definitely noticed it, but can’t explain it. Could be due to the statistical filtering, but I don’t know enough about that. It’s there though, and I’m looking forward to this being traded on the ASX 🙂 Come on CJ!

  3. Nathan you are spot on, the major reason for the increase was the extra business days in May and the reason why our sales are holding compared to the market is that we are winning market share. If you ever want to chat about our data give me a call 08 9420 7880.

    • Ah, thanks Mark and I will take you up on that offer – I’ve got a few questions to ask. May not be for a few days yet though.