Australian dollar rally and reversal

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Latest posts by _EcoRon_ (see all)

Comments

  1. Tiges in 2012

    As you can see in the chart below, which is based on the positioning of Speculative Traders of Australian Dollar Futures contracts traded in the US and as reported by the CFTC

    what is the size of each contract BTW?

    • Deus Forex Machina

      Tiges hey…having a nice year so far but as a Pies man I’d prefeer you blokes not to be building the way you are šŸ™‚

      To your question – the contracts are 100,000 Australian Dollars.

      To your implied question – yes futures represent only a tiny amount of overall FX trade but they are VERY representative of the short term specy trading community.

      Go PIES!

    • Richmon dude, point to note though is that the futures market for FX is infinitesimal compared to the OTC spot market.

      Anecdotally Fx futures volume is about $166B daily whilst OTC Spot volume is almost $4Trillion. Thats about 4% of the market in futures.

  2. Good job for including CFTC spec data. It does add to the analysis.

    Also, well noted about the other side of the pair, being the USD. Aussie analysts often spend 99% of their energy focusing on macro fundamentals of AUD, whilst ignoring the vital (and probably overriding) fact that the US wants a cheap USD.

    And, on the size of futures trades vs. spot, we need to keep in mind that many of the biggest traders (and therefore perhaps the key drivers in the short term) are either users of futures or follow the trading data on them very closely.

    • Deus Forex Machina

      Agree GG its not the absolute size of the trade that futures represent it who this trade represents and follows these traders…

      And yep the USD side of the AUD/USD is still something in the mist for many analysts – go figure

  3. the dollar will continue to slid as the global economy worsens, there’ll be QE3 which will be pumped into commodities… our dollar will rise above parity again for a little while, then the shit will really hit the fan and it will fall to 80.

  4. You say “Gold is in a downtrend since Q4 last year”
    What, so for the last 6-9 months?
    What about the last 12 YEARS????
    You have no idea what you are talking about, me thinks!
    in late 2007 the local market was about to bust through 7000, what is it now?
    About 4000.
    THAT my friend IS a DOWNTREND!