The ANZ job ads balls up

From the ANZ job ad series today:

The number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers fell 3.1% in April after rising 0.7% in March. Advertisements are around 1.7% below the level of April 2011.

So, more confirmation of a sudden deterioration in the economy in April

But that’s not what matters. Get this:

• ANZ is currently investigating the reliability of data provided by a small internet website, which has been driving the recent improving trend in overall job advertising. As a result, greater caution should be given to the results of the job ads series in recent months. This may reflect data error or double counting of jobs already advertised on other larger internet websites. Other component series and the message of providers such as SEEK suggest internet-based advertising is around 6-8% lower than a year ago, compared to the ANZ series which is around 2% lower than a year ago. ANZ will look to resolve these issues by the May release of job ads in early June.

Well, that’s one of the labour market mysteries resolved. Good on them for coming clean but jeez a lot has been hanging on this job ad recovery.

ANZ goes on:

• After increasing in the early months of 2012, job advertising fell relatively sharply in April (-3.1% m/m).
• Data supplied by a smaller provider of internet-based advertising has been driving the tentative signs of a strengthening in ANZ’s overall job advertisements series in recent months. Examining the trends for newspaper job advertising, the other component series of internet advertising and the results of other surveys of job advertising such as the SEEK new job ads series, suggests the strength of this component series is misleading. This may be due to a data error or because the website is capturing an increasing number of jobs also advertised elsewhere on the internet (effectively double-counting job ads). As a consequence, ANZ advises that the y/y growth rate of advertising may be overstated by as much as around 5-7 percentage points and the data may be revised next month. ANZ is confident that the estimated drop in advertising of around 3% reported in April is broadly correct. As noted above, ANZ will investigate and look to resolve these issues by the May issue of job ads in early June.
• Structural change in the advertising market means it has become more difficult to interpret state trends in advertising from newspaper job advertising trends. However, observing newspaper trends, together with published and unpublished data from internet advertising sources provides a number of important conclusions:
• This month’s release showed weakness across all states and territories except the Northern Territory (ie including WA and QLD, though the softer outcome in WA followed several months of strong rises).
• In general, WA and the Northern Territory remain clearly the strongest labour markets, influenced dramatically by the mining investment boom. Queensland is also benefiting, but less so than WA and the NT.
• Victoria, Tasmania, the ACT and SA are experiencing weak job advertising trends. NSW, while also weak, is not showing quite as weak trends as Victoria.
• Victoria’s relative weakness likely reflects pressures on manufacturing and a relatively later downturn in the housing market than in other states.
• ANZ has changed its forecast for monetary policy in light of continued softness in the non-mining sectors of the economy, sustained uncertainty by consumers and businesses and an expectation that fiscal policy will subtract from growth in the year ahead as the Government returns the budget to surplus in 2012/13. ANZ now expects a further 0.75% drop in official interest rates by the end of 2012.
• April labour force data are released on Thursday. ANZ forecasts total employment to fall 15,000 in April and the unemployment rate to rise slightly to 5.3%. The fall in employment is largely predicated on a reversal of the out-sized rise in overall employment in March and in particular in female part-time employment, a notoriously volatile component of overall employment.

So, that most likely wipes out the entire last few months of job ad gains and then a sharp 3% fall in April as the kicker. More confirmation that the PSI is not lying.

ANZ Job Ads Apr-12