New home sales rise from canvas

HIA-JELDWEN new home sales for April are out today and show a small bounce from March’s crater low. The internals are not at terribly encouraging, surging in Victoria on disappearing stimulus and where more dwellings are least needed:

The HIA – JELD-WEN New Home Sales report, based on a survey of Australia’s 100 largest builders, showed a rise of 6.9 per cent in total seasonally adjusted new home sales in April 2012. Detached house sales rose by 6.4 per cent while multi-unit sales were up by 10.3 per cent.

In April 2012 the number of seasonally adjusted new detached house sales increased by 17.2 per cent in Victoria ahead of the removal of the First Home Bonus. Detached house sales also increased in Western Australia (by 9.8 per cent) and New South Wales (by 1.8 per cent). Detached house sales fell by 5.9 per cent in South Australia and by 5.5 per cent in Queensland.

2012-04 NHSS National Media Release (3)

Houses and Holes
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      • Alex Heyworth

        The release says the figures are seasonally adjusted. Maybe the seasonal adjustment factor needs to be looked at.

        April is around when you would expect to finalize a contract house started in January, when the builders get back from Christmas holidays.

  1. After the first home owners grant finishes on 20th June, then what, where does the demand come from for the over supplied market?

  2. These “spikes” or noise, in a volatile market are good. They may prevent Governments from immediately initiating programs to shore up the housing market. Although it appears the SA Govt is about to provide a 100% stamp duty rebate for new apartments built within the city centre.
    (the story was in the Advertiser recently, but I don’t have the link, sorry)

    • Say it won’t be so! I dread the day where more of my tax dollars are given to speculators to make keep houses out of my reach. I would hope that the Government don’t intervene this time but there is no hope with the current state of our politics. I’d say we are in some ways more static than US politicians.

      • I would not worry to much, the market will crash, the only way they could keep the market up is a mass import of foreign labour, but in an economy were so many are now losing jobs that will mean a vote shift if they try do that. Of the foreign labor that does come in, I would say most of it will be to locations that are not in capital cities for mining.

        The market is going to be dictated by Greece and now more importantly Spain as it implodes. Our and the Chinese market are so sensitive to the EU markets. Not to mention bank funding costs coupled with VIC’s June 30th finish on FHB

        If our dollar drives down which is most likely what will happen foreign investors may start offloading property faster to A, get rid of investments turning negative and also to cash in while the Aus dollar is high.

        Then we may see baby boomers and superfund investors pulling out of the market as well to cash in while they still can.

  3. Forrest GumpMEMBER

    Read the fine print carefully…”rise of 6.9 per cent in total seasonally adjusted new home sales in April 2012.”

    A builder builds 5 new homes in an estate in Jan 2011. (HIA Statistics sprout a massive increase in building)

    In June 2011 the homes are marketed for sale (Builder has failed to sell them off the plans)

    December 2011 the builder offers free Landrovers (True!), Free Visa cards with $10K etc. Still no sales.

    March 2012, the builder starts giving his prices a hair cut. He knocks off x% and still includes the Land Rover. He sells all 5 houses.

    Now read the report from JELD WEN above…”rise of 6.9 per cent in total seasonally adjusted new home sales in April 2012.”

    You need to understand the background circumstances of the report