By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released the Building Approvals data for the month of March. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally adjusted 7.4% to 11,501, driven predominantly by a 15.5% increase in approvals for units and apartments, as well as large bounce in New South Wales (following last month’s sharp contraction). The result beat epectations, economists forecasting a only 0.4% rise.
In the year to March 2012, building approvals fell by 15.0%. The key figures are provided in the below table:
A chart showing the time series of seasonally-adjusted dwelling approvals at the national level is provided below, split-out by detached houses and units & apartments:
As you can see, dwelling approvals nationally for both houses and units & apartments have been trending down since early 2010 and, despite this month’s bounce, are nearing the lows of early 2009, when the building industry was in a global financial crisis induced funk and the first home buyers’ bonus had yet to take effect.
At the state level, New South Wales drove the rise in dwelling approvals, increasing a seasonally adjusted 49% in the month of March. Western Australia (+11%), South Australia (+4%) and the ACT (+15%). By contrast, Victoria (-5%), Queensland (-9%), Tasmania (-7%), and the Northern Territory (-27%) recorded falls in building approvals over the month.
The below chart shows the time-series of approvals at the state level. Due to the high volatility of the series, this is presented on a 3-month moving average (3MMA) basis:
As you can see, the trend in dwelling approvals is down everywhere, notwithstanding this month’s NSW bounce, with Victoria’s approvals falling sharply from recent record highs (although still elevated).
