By Leith van Onselen
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released Building Activity data for the December quarter, which registered an 0.8% increase in the number of dwelling commencements in the December quarter to be down -15.7% over the year.
However, there were large variations across the states and territories:
- New South Wales: -19.6% MoM; -28.4% YoY;
- Victoria: +14.2% MoM; -8.7% YoY;
- Queensland: +4.6% MoM; -10.8% YoY;
- Western Australia: +2.7% MoM; -14.7% YoY:
- South Australia: -7.8% MoM: -27.4% YoY;
- Tasmania: -10.5% MoM; -15.6% YoY;
- Northern Territory: -11.0% MoM; -31.9% YoY; and
- Australian Capital Territory: -8.6% MoM; -12.6% YoY.
A time series chart of dwelling completions is provided below. Note the resurgence of dwelling construction in Victoria, which remained at epic proportions in the December quarter:
Victoria’s share of the nation’s dwelling construction hit an all-time high of 39% in the December quarter, which is massive considering Victoria’s 25% share of Australia’s population:
However, it is doubtful that this pace of dwelling construction can be maintained, given that Victoria’s population growth, dwelling approvals and dwelling completions have fallen from recent highs:
And with property being the most valuable industry in Victoria (see below table), any material slowing of dwelling construction could hit Victoria’s already fragile economy for six.
