ANZ job ads point to solid employment

ANZ released their monthly Job Advertisement series this morning, and it provides an interesting picture going into Thursday’s official job figures release from the ABS. Does it provide some confirmation that maybe the RBA was right to hold rates for a little longer as they are still cautious regarding a wage spiral? Here are the key points:

  • The number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers rose 1.0% m/m in March, following solid rises in January and February. Total job advertisements were 2.8% higher than in March 2011 and are now at the highest level since November 2008.
  • The rise in job advertising was driven by a 1.0% rise in internet job advertisements, which were 4.1% higher than a year ago.
  • Newspaper job ads fell 0.6% m/m in March, to be 22.0% below levels from one year ago.
  • In trend terms, total job ads rose by 2.0% m/m in March to be 3.3% higher than a year earlier. Trend growth in job advertising has now been positive since November 2011.

The most recent Bloomberg survey has the unemployment rate on Thursday rising to 5.3% from 5.2% – still around the RBA’s preferred level for unemployment stability. Here’s the change in the unemployment rate since 2006:

The full report:
120410 – ANZ Job Ads March 2012

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Comments

  1. Not too bad at all. Absolutely the RBA were right to hold: employment steady, wage pressures present, modest uptick in business employment, dollar deflecting inflationary influence.

    At least for now.

    .

  2. this is a 2nd tier indicator at best and will have no impact on the RBA decisions.

    for chart watchers the UE chart above is very bullish and looks like UE is about to have another leg up.

    • the skills shortage is on par with the housing shortage ie it doesnt exist. if it did why is thete zero jobs growth and why has the UE rate been going up? sklls shortage? LOL

  3. Interesting – job ads surged strongly over 2011, and yet 2011 was a year of virtually no net job growth.

    Job ads also surged by a remarkable amount from Q4 2008 to the beginning of Q3 2009 – and all the while, unemployment was consistently rising according to the ABS.

    I would have expected movements in job ads to closely track the unemployment rate but the correlation looks fairly weak – can anyone advance any theories as to why?

    • Can’t help with the theory, but would like to see a comparison chart to see whether your observations are right.

    • The chart in the ANZ paper (pg 5) shows an index of jobs vs the unemployment rate. It has a negative correlation (albeit not an overly tight one) as you would expect.

      The ANZ team should have inverted the unemployment rate to have a chart showing positive correlation.

      • Ah yes I see now – I was reading the chart showing the change in the unemployment rate as the change in job advertising.