Population growth continues to normalise

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released the Australian Demographic Statistics, which shows Australian population growth at ‘normal’ levels.

According to the ABS, Australia’s population grew by 1.4%, or 320,000 people, in the year to September 2011. In percentage terms, this is just on the 30-year average level; although net immigration is still running slightly above average levels:

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Just over half (54%) of Australia’s population growth came from net immigration, which is down from the record high reached in December 2008, where immigration accounted for 68% of Australia’s population growth:

The below chart shows net overseas migration (NOM), which measures in/out migration of anyone residing/leaving Australia for a period of 12 months or more (rather than permanently):

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According to the ABS, NOM is positive and above long-term trends, but has declined sharply from the peak level reached in the year to December 2008, from around 315,000 to 172,500 persons. This was mainly due to an increase in departures, which increased 3%, whilst arrivals only increased by 1%

The other 46% of Australia’s population growth came from natural increase (i.e. births minus deaths), whereby there was a 149,300 increase in the population in the year to September 2012, down from a peak of 155,100 in the prior 12 month period. It appears from the data that the mini baby boom that has taken place from the mid-2000s might finally be coming to an end, with the birth rate starting to trend down, lowering the natural increase of the population in the process:

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Finally, at the mainland state level, Western Australia’s population is booming, growing by +2.6% in the year to September 2011. This is followed by Queensland (+1.7%), Victoria (+1.5%), New South Wales (+1.1%), and South Australia (+0.8%):

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.