Demand by state

We don’t actually have GDP by state until later but a reasonable proxy is state final demand. The quarter was a different mix to much of last year with QLD leading quarter on quarter growth at 1.2%, NSW next on 0.8%, SA third on 0.2%, VIC entering recession territory on -0.5% and WA making a mockery of that claim getting hammered backwards -2.4%. Here’s a chart of the growth rates:

As you can see, the trends in the charts tell a different story. WA was correcting after the Sep QTR surge and the eastern states quarterly growth rates look to be sliding. Here’s another chart of aggregate growth:

VIC and SA look in real danger of actual recessions. NSW meanwhile had a breakout quarter but I suspect that may have something to do with its out-performing housing market so there’s a question over the sustainability of its surge given the mortgage activity surrounding the FHB incentives have concluded.

Overall I guess the lesson is that when you base the GDP of an entire nation on the deliverables of a single industry, you can expect a volatile outcome.

Comments

  1. A state based, sectoral breakdown would make very interesting reading. Here’s WA getting trounced, despite being the mining cornerstone. On the other hand, QLD is at the other end of the spectrum. Perhaps the WA folk need to pray for some floods and other natural disasters. Maybe Bastiat was wrong!

  2. Victoria can’t be headed to recession territory.

    According to the RP-Data Rismark Daily Home Value Index, house prices in Melbourne rose 0.45% yesterday – that’s almost half a percent in one day!

    Annualised, that’s about 164% growth!

    Yee-HAH!

  3. Sigh

    I just knew that new RP Daily Index would become a major source of comical material.

  4. > NSW meanwhile had a breakout quarter but
    > I suspect that may have something to do
    > with its out-performing housing market

    Help your state economy! Buy a house!

  5. I saw these figures on the ABC news tonight… QLD and WA had amazing growth, NSW and VIC were treading water while SA went backwards by -0.5% and Tassie was a dreadful -3.8%.

    That’s not a two-speed economy… It’s a multi-speed one. And it’s almost as if we were all living in different countries according to what state we were in…