Big miss in GDP


The Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) just released the National Accounts data for the December quarter of 2011, where Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.4% seasonally adjusted versus 0.7% consensus, and 2.3% over the year, still below trend compared to the pre-GFC era:

Looking through the results, real (adjusted of inflation) net national disposable income actually decreased 0.9%, but over the year grew 4.9% compared with 2.3% for GDP:

The terms of trade fell 4.7% in seasonally adjusted terms in the December quarter following a 3.2% increase in the September quarter:

The household savings ratio remains high at 9% in seasonally adjusted (and trend) terms:

The economy remains on trend – to grow at or below 2% in real terms, as the Federal government adheres to a budget surplus and households continue to dis-leverage.

More to come…