New motor vehicle sales beat expectations

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released new motor vehicle sales data for the month of January:

On a seasonally adjusted basis, new motor vehicle sales rose by 1.3% in the month to be 2.7% higher over the year, which was ahead of analyst’s expectations of a 1.0% rise over the month.

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The increase in total motor vehicle sales has been driven by the sale of special utility vehicles (SUVs) (+3.0% MoM; +27.7% YoY), which has more than offset annual falls in the sale of passenger motor vehicles (PMVs) (+0.2% MoM; -2.4% YoY).

Turning to the time series which, due to volatility in the data have been prepared on a 3-month moving average basis (3MMA), you can see that total motor vehicle sales have well and truly recovered from their GFC lows, but also remain below their pre-GFC high:

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Note also Australia’s changing preference for SUVs, which have been gradually trended upwards as sales of PMVs have been trending down.

At the mainland state level, Queensland has led the way with new motor vehicle sales rising by 17.3% over the year, due in part to the replacement of cars lost in last year’s floods:

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Overall, it’s a solid result even if car sales appear unlikely to reach their pre-GFC highs any time soon.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.