It’s fun reading the Bloomberg quotes throughout the day, as they lag (on the free site, not the terminal) the price action considerably. Asian markets were down, up and then down throughout the day, yet each headline gave the “reason” for the former move….love it..
Anyway, onto want happened without (much) bias. The S&P/ASX 200 Index, with not many leads to go on, bolted out of the gate before selling off slightly in the afternoon, up 17 points or 0.4% at 4288 points. The market got as high as 4315 points intraday.
The ASX200 still needs to clear the 4300 area including climbing above the 200 day moving average for this short term rally to continue as a technical bear market rally, with a probable target up to 4700 points, the mid-point of the higher trading range from 2009-mid 2011:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was flat (eventually) down 3 points to 8875 points, whilst the Hang Seng re-opened but also was flat, up 10 points to 20,449, with the Shanghai Composite still closed for the new year holiday.
The AUD remains strong, staying above 1.06 against the USD, currently at 1.0615 whilst WTI crude remains flat, up 4 cents to be just below $100 USD a barrel whilst gold was sold off during the Asian session, down $8 to $1721USD an ounce but down due to the high AUD to $1619 AUD per ounce.
Movers and Shakers
A mixed, goodish day according to the sectors, with materials and industrials bid up just over and just under 1% each, whilst consumer stocks (both kinds – staple and discretionary) continued their sell off.
As I stated yesterday, the banks have led the move in the market alongside the “Holes”, but today’s action was relatively mild.
ANZ was up 0.4% building slightly on its breakout of its bullish rectangle pattern, with a target at resistance at $22 not far away. The big brother of banks, the Commonwealth (CBA) was also up slightly, now above $51 a share whilst National Australia Bank (NAB) was sold off, the weakest of the three, down 0.5%, as I said yesterday holding neutral for now.
Finally Westpac (WBC) was flat after yesterday’s stonking 3.5% rise, although it has broken out of a short term rectangle base, with resistance at $21.70, it too is still technically neutral on the weekly charts:
Going to Macquarie (MQG), the Millionaire Factory was also flat, losing 4 cents after its large rise yesterday, where I still contend it needs to clear around $27 per share to firm up the bullish thesis.
On to my favourite stocks, as in what the market should be mostly made up of, with Cochlear (COH) flat again, remaining just on trend whilst its “twin” CSL was sold off, down 0.3% in a slow melt as the mismanaged AUD continues to rise.
Telstra (TLS) also sold off, down 0.6% still in a holding pattern and remains to be seen whether my blow-off thesis is correct.
To the resources, where BHP Billiton (BHP) climbed just over half a percent, now at its highest since November last year, and building on its breakout above resistance at $37 a share. If BHP clears $39 a share, the likelihood of a sustained rally to 4700 points on the ASX200 is increased substantially.
Its “twin” Rio Tinto (RIO), surged over 2%, also at a new high, wanting to break free (queue Queen music) with resistance at $70 almost in its reach, god knows…
Gold miner Newcrest Mining (NCM) was up almost 4%, alongside junior gold miners, reacting to the surge in gold over the Australia Day break on speculation of QE3 – new AND improved – coming from the Fed soon. Today’s move seems too fast but according to my short term trading system is not yet in blowoff stage (but overbought – then again, all rallies are technically overbought until they ain’t!!)
On “too fast” moves, Fortescue (FMG) shot back today after a 3 day fall in what I call a bullish “KC Signal”, jumping over the $5 psychological barrier.
To finish out the ASX8, Woodside Petroleum (WPL) gained exactly 1.5%, building on a short term uptrend that looks sustainable:
Tonight’s data will likely revolve around US quarterly GDP as corporate earnings season rolls on. The overnight futures for the ASX200 are up around 8 points to 4280, even though other equity futures are down 0.3 to 0.5%.