After a choppy start and then following leads from other Asian markets (and supposedly from “progress” on Greek debt-swap talks), the S&P/ASX 200 Index finished the last trading day of January by selling off in the afternoon, down 6 points or 0.15% at 4266 points.
I keep harping on it, but the ASX200 still needs to clear the 4300 area including climbing above the 200 day moving average for this short term rally to continue as a technical bear market rally, with a probable target up to 4700 points, the mid-point of the higher trading range from 2009-mid 2011:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 is basically flat up 18 points to 8811 points, whilst the Hang Seng is stronger, currently, up 144 points to 20304, with the Shanghai Composite currently flat at 2285 points.
The AUD remains strong, staying above 1.06 against the USD, currently at 1.0635 whilst WTI crude gained half a percent to be above $99 USD a barrel. Gold put on only a few dollars during the Asian session, currently at $1738USD an ounce but down $5 due to the high AUD to $1630 AUD per ounce.
Movers and Shakers
A mixed day according to the sectors, with telecomms (i.e Telstra) up nearly 1%, staples up 0.6% (mainly due to Woolworths (WOW) up 1.4%) with the biggest losers being energy, down 0.7% mainly on the nearly 3% fall in Origin Energy (ORG).
Checking out the ASX8 (the top four banks and miners), ANZ was down 0.3%, its recent breakout fading as investors wait for earnings results. The big brother of banks, the Commonwealth (CBA) was also down, losing 0.7% to fall below $51 a share, and for the candlestick readers out there, a third day in a row of long tails on red candles (yes, this is VERY short term analysis!):
National Australia Bank (NAB) slipped 0.25% still holding neutral for now, and finally Westpac (WBC) was the only bank in the green, up 0.2%, although it too is seeing short term weakness, decelerating out of its recent breakout and as I said recently, still technically neutral on the weekly charts.
Going to Macquarie (MQG), the Millionaire Factory was also flat, down 0.2%, trying to build on its own tentative breakout, where I still contend it needs to clear around $27 per share to firm up a bullish thesis.
To the holes, where BHP Billiton (BHP) slipped with the index, another stock trying to build on its breakout. If BHP clears $39 a share, the likelihood of a sustained rally to 4700 points on the ASX200 is increased substantially. But no dice yet.
Its “twin” Rio Tinto (RIO), edged higher, up over 0.5%, slowly heading to resistance at $70:
Gold miner Newcrest Mining (NCM) fell over 1.5%, confirming (only in day, I’m not getting too excited) my recent thesis that its trend seems too fast. However according to my short term trading system is still not yet in blowoff stage. (for disclosure I no longer trade NCM).
Fortescue (FMG) was effectively flat, still consolidating from its recent breakout, up 0.4% for the day (a timid one for FMG) still over the $5 psychological barrier.
To finish out the ASX8, Woodside Petroleum (WPL) was flat, its short term uptrend still intact, but with short term resistance zone around the $34 mark.
Checking out some others, including some of my favorites, as in what the market should be mostly made up of, Cochlear (COH) lost 1.2%, almost completing an intermediate triangle pattern, from its high at $76 per share, pre-recall:
Again, I no longer trade COH, but for disclosure own some in super – a break below that green uptrend line would be bearish short and medium term for the stock.
Oh for a cheaper AUD…
Meanwhile its “twin” CSL bounced back, up nearly 1% still struggling to get above its long term moving average.Telstra (TLS) also moved similarly, still in a holding pattern but remaining bullish for now. I guess the Future Fund rues selling down its significant portion last year at these prices?
Tonight’s dataflow will likely revolve around German/Italian unemployment figures and the ongoing talks about solving the Greek debt crisis, whilst the US corporate season rolls on (Exxon/Pfizer). The overnight futures for the ASX200 are down around 7 points to 4258, even though other equity futures are up slightly.