Trading Day

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped again today, finishing flat on very low volume, following similar leads from overnight markets. The bourse finished down barely 1 points or 0.02% at 4224 points:


The market needs to clear the 4300 area (the upper breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart and above the 200 day moving average) to continue as a technical bear market rally, with a probable target up to 4700 points, the mid-point of the higher trading range from 2009-mid 2011.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was slightly better but still flat, up 19 points or 0.2% to 8784 points, the volatile Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite remain closed for China New Year holiday.

The AUD remains strong, dipping below 1.05 against the AUD, currently trading at 1.0495 against the USD, whilst WTI crude was flat, up 15 cents to remain just below $100 USD a barrel.

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Gold continued this lack of action in the Asian session, down $5 after a good night, currently at $1673USD an ounce or $1594 AUD per ounce.

Movers and Shakers
No reason to get excited on the first day of the official earnings season for the ASX200…mixed at best, half up, half down equating to no real movement. REIT’s saw some good bids, whilst consumer stocks were sold off.

The banks remain weak, as investor’s digest the latest warning from overseas institutions, although ANZ was bid up 0.4% still refusing to breaking out of its bullish rectangle pattern; the big brother of banks, the Commonwealth (CBA) was flat, up 6 cents and still looking for a good breakout above $50 a share, but no dice yet.

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National Australia Bank (NAB) finished down over half a percent whilst Westpac (WBC) was actually up 0.6%, recapping some of yesterdays 1% loss.

Macquarie (MQG) was up to exactly $25 a share – ready to go over this time?


Healthcare favourite Cochlear (COH) was bid up strongly, up 1.7% remaining on trend whilst its “twin” CSL lost over 2%, moving from a short term neutral stance to bearish. Telstra (TLS) was flat, again on very light volume, forming a small pennant on the daily charts, effectively stuck in neutral.

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To the resources, where BHP Billiton (BHP) slipped almost half a percent to be just over last week’s breakout above resistance at $37 a share, whilst its “twin” Rio Tinto (RIO), was up 0.7% and remains in a good short term uptrend, with resistance at $70 per share to clear soon.

Gold miner Newcrest Mining (NCM) was up almost 2% on a good quarterly production report, whilst Fortescue (FMG) was proving volatile again, down 1.6%, still in a medium term bearish stance.

To finish out the ASX8, Woodside Petroleum (WPL) was up slightly but still remains flat, trying to climb out of its sideways funk.

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Defensive stocks Wesfarmers (WES) and Woolworths (WOW) reflected the broader market, flat flat flattily flat, down a couple cents each and going nowhere fast.

Tonight’s data is Eurocentric, with flash manufacturing and services PMI for France, Germany and EU possibly moving things, whilst locally we wait for inflation data tomorrow. The overnight futures are flat for the ASX200, down a few points to 4220 and other markets down similarly.

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