The risk on rally continued on Asian markets today, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index up 0.8% or 35 points to 4187 points.
On the daily charts, the local bourse has hit local resistance at 4200 points, and could retrace to its rising support line whilst still supporting a short or medium term rally thesis, where overhead resistance then needs to clear at 4300-4350 points before a sustained bear market rally can be called:
On the weekly charts the market looks like a coiled spring, and has not yet broken above its downtrend since April 2011:
Other Asian markets saw modest gains, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.3% or 25 points to 8447 points, the volatile Hang Seng barely up to 19030 points whilst the Shanghai Composite has slipped slightly, currently down 0.3% to 2278.
The AUD has actually slipped below 1.03 again, currently trading at 1.0291 against the USD, whilst WTI crude followed, down 0.4% to $101.85 USD a barrel.
Gold has tentatively pushed over its resistance level and 200 day moving average level, currently trading at $1637USD an ounce, with the next target at overhead resistance at $1680 as seen on the daily chart below:
Movers and Shakers
It was actually a mixed day across the sectors, with energy and materials leading the way as usual, up 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, whilst telecomms (i.e Telstra) fell 1.7% and IT fell just under 1 percent.
The big four banks were all up but mixed in magnitude, still basically sideways on the charts, with ANZ up 1.6% but still in a holding pattern, Commonwealth (CBA) barely up and still hitting strong resistance at $50 per share – keep a very close eye on that one – National Australia Bank (NAB) was only up 0.3% and Westpac (WBC) was more bullish, up 2%, climbing above tentative support at $20 per share and looking like rallying up to $21.50 in the short term:
Macquarie (MQG) fell 0.4% and remains flat on the charts, still not joining in on the fun whilst healthcare favourite Cochlear (COH) continues its selloff, down another 1% to be below $60 a share.
Its “twin” CSL was off a little and still on trend and above its long term moving average, but traders are getting impatient (read:me) whilst Telstra (TLS), fell almost 2% just below its highest “fanline” on the chart:
To the resources, where BHP Billiton (BHP) was up 1.5% and is slowly heading back up to resistance at $37 a share, a breakout being very bullish for the overall index, but note the overall pattern is a bearish descending triangle pattern. Meanwhile, its “twin” Rio Tinto (RIO) was up 1.6% and has broken out from its short term downtrend, with resistance at $70 per share its next target:
Gold miner Newcrest Mining (NCM) saw strong bids again, up 1.8%, looking very bullish as it rebounds off a bottom at $30 per share whilst the commodity itself is also pushing back up again. Fortescue (FMG) was up nearly 3% and returning back to its pre-Xmas trend.
To finish out the ASX8, Woodside Petroleum (WPL) shot up over 3%, having built up a short term uptrend previously, strange given the company said that it has halted production at several oil fields off the northwest coast of Western Australia because of Tropical Cyclone Heidi.
Finishing up with the defensive stocks Wesfarmers (WES) and Woolworths (WOW) were both up 0.5%, where WOW continues to remains on trend and WES in an holding bullish pattern.
Data releases tonight include the US Empire State Manufacturing index and UK trade balance. European and US stocks futures are actually down 0.2 to 0.4%, whilst SPI futures have climbed to be just on the 4200 point level.