Trading Day

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Asian markets continued to defy the optimists as the risk-on New Years rally tapers at the end of the week, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index closing down 0.9% or 34 points to finish at 4108 points.

On the daily charts, the local bourse is still in an intermediate trending range from the October 2011 low, with higher lows on any retracements supporting a bullish theory:


However, the weekly charts are clearer on the potential of the market, which is still below its medium term trendline from April 2011, and well below its long term moving average:


Technically, this is a symmetrical triangle, with a bearish bias, that requires a weekly close above the red downtrend line to support a new bear market rally thesis. In after hours trading, the SPI futures have slipped and are dicing with the 4100 points level.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 also felt the heat, clsoing down over 1.4% or 118 points to 8370 points today, the volatile Hang Seng was also down 1.4% to 18550 points and the Shanghai Composite continues to stay in the red for 2012, currently trading down 10 points or 0.5% to 2138.

The AUD slipped further during the Asian session and currently trading at 1.0225 against the USD, whilst WTI crude fell almost 0.5% to $101.37 USD a barrel.

Gold is looking a bit stronger now, at $1623.50USD an ounce, now above its resistance and 200 day moving average level on the daily charts:


A closer look using hourly charts and it needs to surpass the $1634USD an ounce level of 21st December to complete the bottoming process:

Movers and Shakers
Almost all sectors finished in the red – except consumer and property stocks which were flat. The worst performers were materials, IT and telecomms stocks all down 1% or so.

The big four banks were all sold off, continuning their mainly sideways movements, with ANZ down 1.5%, Commonwealth (CBA) down 0.3% and again refusing to go above strong resistance at $50 per share, National Australia Bank (NAB) dropped just over 1.5% and Westpac (WBC) was down 1.3%, just above support at $20 per share:


Macquarie (MQG) joined the big boys and fell 1.3% for the day, whilst healthcare favourite Cochlear (COH) continued its selloff, down 1.66% to be just above $60 a share, its “twin” CSL also slipped, down 0.4% to be just below $32 per share.

Telstra (TLS), as I have been warning this week was getting set up for a blowoff, has continued to fall in line with tmarket, dropping 1.2% to $3.33 a share:


To the resources, where “valuations” are low (someone tell the market its cheap, hurry): BHP Billiton (BHP) was down 1.5%, finishing at its intraday low at $35.27 a share, its “twin” Rio Tinto (RIO) only down 0.6% still below its short term trendline.

Gold miner Newcrest Mining (NCM) was the standout, up almost 0.5% yet still at depressed levels just as the commodity itself remains in a holding pattern. Fortescue (FMG) fell 1.5% as iron ore prices settle and to finish out the ASX8, Woodside Petroleum (WPL) finished exactly flat.

Finishing up with the defensive stocks Wesfarmers (WES) and Woolworths (WOW) both followed each other dropping around 0.7% as punters sought more safety in cash. WOW remains on trend, just:

All important US unemployment rate will be announced tonight, AEDST time along with Fed Chairman Ben Bernankes testimony to the US Congress, which will have markets on edge. European stocks futures are hesitant ahead of this, with US futures also down approx. 0.5 to 0.7% across the board following Asian markets.

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