Asian markets started the new calendar year with a flurry, on the back of positive data from India (manufacturing rose to 6 month high) and China (non-manufacturing jumped for December), although amidst a backdrop of a contracting Singapore economy and deterioration in South Korean manufacturing.
Nonetheless, the consensus crowd got excited and Australian shares were bid up all day, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index closing up 1.1% or 44 points to finish just over 4100 points, with some interesting technical action, as discussed today with fellow blogger Deus Forex Machina on Twitter (see feed on right sidebar —->)
Note the daily chart below:
The last four months have seen volatility reign, with daily closing prices ranging from just below 3900 and just above 4300 points. The current structure has touched a rising support line (green line) 3 times since the early October “double low”, and in the recent break, a level of horizontal support at 4050 points (orange line). There has been a tentative break of the short term downtrend (red line) but we need to look at the weekly chart for perspective:
The downtrend from April 2011 is clearly evident (red) but the rising support (green) is converging with the trendline, with a resolution forthcoming soon, with a break above 4150-4200 by the end of January suggesting a new rally for the new year. Whether this become sustainable is another question.
In after hours trading, the SPI futures have slipped slightly, down just below 4100 points, following mixed leads from the European (up) and US futures (down).
Rounding up the other Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was closed today, the volatile Hang Seng was up 2% to 18810 points and the Shanghai Composite was also closed.
The AUD climbed again almost up to 1.03 on the generally risk-on environment, currently trading at 1.0289 against the USD, whilst WTI crude climbed above $100 USD a barrel, rising almost 2% to $100.55
Gold too had a big rebound in the Asian session and is currently trading at $1588USD per ounce, or over 1% but still below its 200 DMA, and as I suggested, seemingly finding a bottom on the hourly charts. In Australian dollars, the rise was muted, with the shiny metal up only $10AUD to $1542 AUD an ounce.
Movers and Shakers
All sectors finished in the green – unicorns and rainbows – with materials and industrials the biggest winners, well over 1% gains in each.
The banks all finished up, with ANZ up 0.7% but still bouncing along in a very tight trading range, Commonwealth (CBA) also up 0.7%, National Australia Bank (NAB) surging 1.7% having a very short term and noisy little rally and Westpac (WBC) up around 0.8%, again, basically just noise as all the banks track sideways.
Macquarie (MQG) although up for the day continued the sideways shuffle, staying below resistance at $25 per share, whilst healthcare favourite Cochlear (COH) barely up, ts “twin” CSL also not moving.
Telstra (TLS) looks set to build on its previous gains and went up almost 1%, but still has very tiny daily average volume.
To the resources, BHP Billiton (BHP) was up over 1% and is still stuck on the bottom, hovering around $34-35 a share, remaining in a bear market (and hence the ASX200)
Its “twin” Rio Tinto (RIO) did even better, up almost 2% but also “flat” medium term, whilst gold miner Newcrest Mining (NCM) jumped almost 4% due to the 1% rally in gold during the Asian session, but also remains in a downtrend, even on the hourly chart:
Fortescue (FMG) had a good day, up over 3%, and to finish out the ASX8, Woodside Petroleum (WPL) was flat.
I love that word “flat” – from a bull it implies a small rise, a bear, a similar fall – but both statistical noise…..
Anyway, let’s finish up with defensive stocks Wesfarmers (WES) and Woolworths (WOW) both seeing good bids, but still going nowhere, the former rising around 0.9% and the latter 0.4%