After another night of risk off, the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell at the open and then rallied in the afternoon before slipping right at the close, down only 2 points to 4190 points:
Although there is some support at the 4150 point mark, it is likely the market will retrace back to the 4000 support level, if it continues to follow other undollar risk assets. In after hours trading, the Australian SPI futures have fallen slightly and are trading at 4180 points.
Asian markets had a slightly worse day, Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.2% at 8532 points, the volatile Hang Seng barely down to 18419 points, whilst the Shanghai Composite is currently down 0.4% or 10 points to 2238 points, continuing its failure of support and extending its medium term downtrend channel (but don’t mention this to Gittins! or Parko)
Europe had a strange night with the UK FTSE proving resilient, actually up 1.1% to 5490 points, maybe The City was embolden by their Chief Protector David Cameron, whilst the German DAX was barely off, down only 11 points to 5774 points, but dicing with short term support, although in the medium term support is rising:
The Euro (EUR/USD) extended its rout in undollar assets, and is currently trading at 1.3040 and seems on its way to 1.20 at worst, with possible intermediate support at 1.27 against the USD, and reflecting this the USD Index has confirmed its breakout on the daily chart (shown below) and is in solid rising trend on the weekly chart, currently above 80 points and probably heading to 85-86 points:
The US markets weren’t as kind, possibly reacting to the disappointing “Black Friday” retail sales numbers and were sold off with the S&P500 closing down 0.8% to 1225 points, maintaining a position halfway through the price distribution of the October rally. As I mentioned earlier this week, a possibly reversal head and shoulders pattern is forming, with the trigger below 1150 points.
The AUD continues to dice with USD parity, currently at 100.22 cents, whilst WTI crude also hovers around $100 a barrel, rising overnight but steady today at $100 USD a barrel exactly.
Gold was sold off again today, down over 1% or $20 an ounce during the Asian session, now at $1638 USD an ounce, and below its long term moving average on the daily chart, but still above support at $1600:
On the weekly chart, where the longer term trend is more easily verified, the shiny metal is dicing with its trend, with a weekly close below $1600 very bearish, with a target of $1500 USD an ounce easily obtainable:
In Australian dollars, gold was slightly more resilient due to the AUD, but still fell $13 AUD an ounce and is now at $1636AUD.
Movers and Shakers
It was a mixed day on the local bourse, with barely any losses or gains across any one sector, utilities the biggest winner up 0.6%, energy stocks losing 0.4%
Financials were unmoved in aggregate, but the big four banks had a mixed day, ANZ up 1%, where it remains in a trading range between $19 and $22 per share, Commonwealth (CBA) unchanged, where it remains in a downtrend channel stubbornly below $50 per share, National Australia Bank (NAB) up 0.4% and still in a sideways funk, whilst Westpac (WBC) slipped only slightly.
Macquarie (MQG) was also a scratch its depressed ways, whilst healthcare favourite (I would kill for a board full of these, not houses and holes!) Cochlear (COH) jumped up 1.4% to finish just above $56 per share.
Its “twin” CSL also put on some runs, up 1% whilst Telstra (TLS) was again stable, unchanged for the day on very light volume.
To the resources, with BHP Billiton (BHP) slipping a third of a percent, its “twin” Rio Tinto (RIO) actually up 0.6% for the day. Both remain at depressed levels and within medium term downtrends or channels.
Gold miner Newcrest Mining (NCM) continued its losses, reflecting the spot price in gold, down 1.1% and has fallen below its support level. A break below its pre-QE2 support of $31 would also reflect a major breakdown in gold, as explained above:
Rounding out the ASX8, Fortescue (FMG) was bid up 0.8% whilst Woodside Petroleum (WPL) was lightly bid up, possibly by short sellers covering, up 0.3% as it too approaches its pre-QE2 lows.
Defensive stocks Wesfarmers (WES) and Woolworths (WOW) swapped today – the former up slightly, the latter down 0.8% almost getting back to pre-August levels above $26 per share.