Trading Day

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell below 4000 points for the first time since October 5th, closing down 59 points or 1.5% to 3984 points today..

The index has now wiped out all the gains from the October rebound rally, with the short, medium and long term trends all pointing down, with the market approaching the late September weekly closing low of 3900 points.


The US markets were closed overnight due to the Thanksgiving holidays, but the S&P500 futures are pointing to a modestly lower open at around 1154 points sitting just above its monthly trend line from the pre-QE2 lows in August/September 2010.

In Europe the UK FTSE lost 0.2%, the German DAX fell 0.5% as the major European continue their slide back to their dominant downtrends.

In after hours trading, the Australian SPI futures have risen a few points in anticipation of weak and undirected opens in Europe. The Euro (EUR/USD) is also returning to its late September daily low, although on a weekly basis has returned to the downtrend.

It is currently trading at 1.331 as the USD Index improves on its breakout against the undollar assets, now at 79.27

Asian markets had a mixed day, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was steady at 8160 points, whilst the Hang Seng fell 1.3% to 17709 points and the Shanghai Composite currently down 1% or 24 points to 2373 points remaining in its downtrend channel.

In other risk assets, the AUD is steady and is currently at 96.95 cents, likely on the way to support at 95.20 cents. WTI crude gained 0.3% and is now at $96.43 USD a barrel, whilst Gold was sold down below $1700 per ounce during the Asian session. In Australian dollars however, gold is currently trading at $1735 AUD an ounce.

Movers and Shakers
A red day on the board of the ASX, with only the A-REIT and IT sectors putting on gains, the biggest losers the financials, materials and industrials all losing around 1.5%

The banks continue to be “revalued” as they struggle with the funding fallout from the European debt crisis, with ANZ down 1.2%, Commonwealth (CBA) hit hard down 2.6% with its short term downtrend morphing into a medium term downtrend as support at $45.55 a share was taken out today:

National Australia Bank (NAB) fell almost 2% whilst Westpac (WBC) lost 1.3% to $19.50 a share, with possible support at $18.90 a share coming up.

Macquarie (MQG) lost 2.5% to $21.38 a share and remains in a dominant long term downtrend, with terminal support $17 per share whilst healthcare standout Cochlear (COH) was also sold off, losing 1.3%

Its “twin” CSL also did not fare as well, losing 1.25% and with its medium term trend now under threat (green trendline in chart below)


Telstra (TLS) remains remarkably resilient, losing slightly to $3.12 a share, and is still in a solid medium term uptrend. Surely its now firming as a less risky dividend play than even the banks?

To the holes in the economy (sic), and BHP Billiton (BHP) fell 1.4% and has reached short term daily support at $34 per share. However, on the weekly chart, BHP has closed below its support level with daylight below.

Its “twin” Rio Tinto (RIO) was down slightly and is now dancing to an Italian tune, as its weekly chart resembles a long rounding top with support at just above $60 per share. A weekly close below could see RIO fall to $30 to $40 per share as 2.5 years of buying support is liquidated:

Meanwhile gold miner Newcrest Mining (NCM) lost nearly 3%, Fortescue (FMG) was the best of the big miners only losing 0.66%

Rounding out the ASX8, Woodside Petroleum (WPL) had a horror day, down almost 6% on release of its capital expenditure plan, showing the wind-down on the Pluto Foundation costs, and subsequently a breakdown of its short term uptrend:


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