ABS Housing Finance for Spetember is out and shows some recovery in the headline numbers:
SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS
VALUE OF DWELLING COMMITMENTS
September 2011 compared with August 2011:The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.9%. Investment housing commitments rose 1.0% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.8% driven by refinancing across institutions.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 1.0%.
NUMBER OF DWELLING COMMITMENTS
September 2011 compared with August 2011:In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 1.2%.
In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 1.3%, the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 1.2% and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.1%.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 2.2%.
In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 16.4% in September 2011 from 15.4% in August 2011.
Here are the charts. First, the national total value of loans, which shows an insipid recovery:
With much the same obvious in the number of loans:
But when we break things down state by state, we find it’s all about Sydney. Firstly in terms of value of loans:
And in terms of the number of loans:
And finally, we come to buyer type where owner occupier issuance actually fell but investors offset the decline:
In short, I would characterise this report as still weak with a very narrow segment of the national market – Sydney investors – dipping their toes in the water with everyone else standing clear. Owner occupiers remain focussed intently on refinancing. Perhaps everyone has been reading the Unconventional Economist.
