Retail sales match wages

So, after a big bounce in July of 0.8% and solid follow through in August of 0.6%, ABS September Retail Trade slowed again to 0.4%. To the charts. The result was in line with expectations:

It looks like retail sales growth is now running at roughly the same rate as wages growth, in the 3.5% range, which may mean that the great savings pulse has plateaued, at least for the time being.

Sales also showed some month on month joy at last for the Harvey Normans of this world:

Growth was solid across the segments, though it is clear that food offers the overall index strong support in year on year terms:

Even ex-inflation there is still some growth:

But take out food and total sales are going nowhere fast:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.