Capex rocket takes off

Capex is out and is the one positive Australian story that just keeps on giving. First the September quarter actual spending estimates:

The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure rose 8.2% in the September quarter 2011. By asset type, the trend estimate for buildings and structures rose 11.3% and equipment, plant and machinery rose 3.4%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total new capital expenditure rose 12.3% in the September quarter 2011.

And it is growth, growth, growth in the two sub components too. First, Buildings and Structures:

The trend estimate for buildings and structures rose 11.3% in the September quarter 2011. Buildings and structures for Mining rose 16.9%, Manufacturing rose 7.7% and Other Selected Industries rose 1.5%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for buildings and structures rose 17.1% in the September quarter 2011. Mining rose 27.1%, Manufacturing rose 7.8% and Other Selected Industries rose 1.3% in seasonally adjusted terms.

And Equipment, Plant and Machinery:

The trend estimate for equipment, plant and machinery rose 3.4% in the September quarter 2011. Equipment, plant and machinery for Mining rose 10.2%, Manufacturing rose 4.5% and Other Selected Industries rose 0.7%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for equipment, plant and machinery rose 6.3% in the September quarter 2011. Mining rose 5.0%, Manufacturing rose 11.2% and Other Selected Industries rose 5.8% in seasonally adjusted terms.

And even in the sectoral breakdown there is good news. First mining:

The trend estimate for Mining rose 16.5% in the September quarter 2011. Buildings and structures rose 16.9% and equipment, plant and machinery rose 10.2%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for Mining rose 22.1% in the September quarter 2011. Buildings and structures rose 27.1% and equipment, plant and machinery rose 5.0% in seasonally adjusted terms.

And signs of life in manufacturing, which appears to be attempting to invest its way out trouble (presumably through productivity gains). Bring that on:

The trend estimate for Manufacturing rose 5.8% in the September quarter 2011.Buildings and structures rose 7.7% and equipment, plant and machinery rose 4.5%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for Manufacturing rose 9.8% in the September quarter 2011. Buildings and structures rose 7.8% and equipment, plant and machinery rose 11.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.

Other industries is more subdued growth:

The trend estimate for Other Selected Industries rose 1.0% in the September quarter 2011. Buildings and structures rose 1.5% and equipment, plant and machinery rose 0.7%. The seasonally adjusted estimate for Other Selected Industries rose 4.1% in the September quarter 2011. Buildings and structures rose 1.3% and equipment, plant and machinery rose 5.8% in seasonally adjusted terms.

And now for the expected expenditure estimates. The clear bar is the estimate made each quarter for the year as a whole and the coloured sub bar is the actual expenditure. First, mining:

Up again, even if, as you can see from past years, mining has a habit of pretty seriously under delivering on its own expectations. Now manufacturing:

Manufacturers tend to deliver much closer to their estimates. You can also see that although this is a promising quarter, the growth in the sector over time is really pretty flat.

Finally, other industries:

Growth in other industries is obviously challenged, going nowhere for four years.

By the end of the year, I expect all three sectors to miss their targets by a decent margin on the advancing global economic weakness. But for now, a good report showing the boom sector going nuts, manufacturing endeavouring around the currency and other industries in a rut.