I’ll take the car, you keep the house

ABS September car sales are out and show a small fall from August’s good pace:

SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

	NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.(a)	NT(a)	ACT(a)	Aust.
Vehicle sales (no.)
Trend	26 587	22 904	18 061	5 695	9 237	1 475	872	1 344	86 174
Seasonally Adjusted	26 641	22 944	18 333	5 830	9 347	1 439	980	1 357	86 872
Change from previous month (%)
Trend	1.4	2.0	1.6	3.1	1.0	2.0	2.5	1.8	1.7
Seasonally Adjusted	-2.9	-2.3	-0.7	4.9	-1.7	-9.4	21.1	1.9	-1.5
Change from previous year (%)
Trend	1.7	-0.3	6.7	4.8	-4.3	-5.5	2.1	-1.7	1.5
Seasonally Adjusted	1.4	0.4	5.4	4.7	-4.6	-13.3	11.9	-2.6	1.3

Nonetheless, these are still good rates of turnover, even if we’re flat lining somewhat in terms of trend.

So, total sales are not that far short of a record high. Like most parts of the services economy, however, the picture is less sanguine in terms of per capita sales:

So, on this measure, we are at sales levels first reached in 1998. Interestingly, there’s a big ramp in SUV sales. Some will be the new Ford Territory and I wonder if mining is playing some role as well.

Still, as today’s lending finance data showed, punters are still willing to borrow for cars, much more so than credit card items or mortgages for existing dwellings. We could see this either as the front end of a curve that gathers in mortgage credit in time, or as evidence that mortgage credit faces a structural shift in demand.

I suspect car sales numbers are still inflated somewhat from the backlog caused by the Japanese tsunami and, assuming either/or both house price continue to fall and the global economy to sputter, we’ll see some further easing ahead.