The S&P/ASX 200 closed slightly lower today, down 12 points or 0.3% to exactly 4200 points, recovering most of this week’s losses.
Asian markets experienced similar caution, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.29% higher at 8797 points, and the Hang Seng down 0.16% at 19720 points.
In other risk assets, the AUD increased a little on Governor Glenn Stevens remarks this morning, but is still below 1.05 against the USD at $1.0484, whilst WTI crude slipped to $85.16 USD per barrel. Gold recovered some of its losses and is now back at $1779 USD an ounce, up 1% with one hour to go before the end of the Asian session.
Movers and Shakers
It’s mixed across the board on the ASX today, with most sectors down or steady, although utilities are up 1.5%. Volatility abounds due to earnings reports and updates, with Alesco (ALS) falling just over 24% due to sales decline and drop in consumer sentiment whilst Perpetual (PPT) announced good results and is up over 10% for the day.
The banks were mixed, with ANZ steady, CBA down 0.25%, with WBC up 0.25% and NAB also up over a third of a percent.
What is rising for all banks? Credit Default Swap (CDS) costs (h/t Delusional Economics):
BHP Billiton (BHP) closed the day steady, whilst RIO lost almost 1%. Woolworths (WOW) continued to fall, down 2% after a good earnings, bad outlook result yesterday.
The Charts
In the short term, there is strong resistance at 4325 points – the high reached during the rebound rally from the epic correction of early August. Failure to breach this level will likely send the market back down to 4100 points, or even to the closing low of 4000 points.
Daily chart of ASX200 - click to enlarge
This week’s action is technically a short term uptrend (note red line), but like all markets, the ASX200 is moving sideways waiting direction, just like last years pre-QE2 jitters.
The weekly chart is more revealing – note the support at 4100 points, now tested for four weeks in a row, but the target resistance of 4500 points seems a long, long away…
Weekly chart of ASX200 - click to enlarge
The 260 day weighted moving average (pink) line is trending down, and turning over sharper than last year’s sideways funk – its still a bear market, although a rally up to 4500 points is conceivable and completely normal in the context of a bear market rally.
We all wait for The Bernank to make his “queasy” speech at Jackson Hole today (actually 2am AEST time tomorrow morning).