The employment picture

So, the employment market has turned. Kudos to the rather volatile but this time correct Roy Morgan measure.

As you can see from the above seasonally adjusted chart, the unemployment rate rose in all states except WA (down .2%). The big jumps were in VIC (up .5%), SA (up .4%) and QLD (up .2%). NSW was flat.

All states except QLD also recorded a loss of full time positions. NSW lost 4,800 jobs, VIC lost 28,000 jobs, SA lost 7,300 jobs and WA lost 2,000. QLD added 6,600 jobs. Presumably its participation rate rose faster still.

I know, I know, there are sampling errors, but those are the figures and the flat trend is, to my mind, set to turn. Take a look:

Here too is the unemployment rate graphed against house prices and retail sales. Looks like the more job losses ahead to me:

And finally, to complete the picture, unemployment graphed against the Employment Index from the NAB Business Survey for July, which showed business employment intentions collapsing:

Do you think they feel better this month? More jobs losses ahead. Rate hikes off. Bullhawks finished.





Houses and Holes
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    • A tumbling comet of feathers, horns and beaks crashing into the mountain side with a tumultuous din that failed to drown out the wail of suffering from the remains of a man still caught in the talons of the beastly maelstrom.

      Terry McCrann was never seen again…

      From my forthcoming novel: Eaten by Bullhawks

        • BUT…
          business is business!
          And business must grow
          regardless of crummies in tummies, you know.

          I meant no harm. I most truly did not.
          But I had to grow bigger. So bigger I got.
          I biggered my factory. I biggered my roads.
          I biggered my wagons. I biggered the loads
          of the Thneeds I shipped out. I was shipping them forth
          to the South! To the East! To the West! To the North!
          I went right on biggering… selling more Thneeds.
          And I biggered by money, which everyone needs.

  1. And stories floating around this morning of big upcoming job losses in the NSW public sector…………not good at all

    • Cuts to that bloated temple of inefficiency are more than needed.

      I feel for anyone who finds themselves unemployed right now though.

      • needed certainly from an efficiency standpoint, but with no sector to take up the slack, definitely not needed at this point in time

      • Careful. Guarantee it will be the small guys who know their job that will go first. Every budget and election the public service gets sliced beyond recognition, and to be honest there’s not much left at the coalface, but the “bloated temple” of higher management remains intact.
        On a side note I overheard a conversation on the bus yesterday: a woman struggling with her mortgage and desperately ringing friends for a loan to tide her over.

        • Sadly true. The majority of cuts impact service far more than waste. In fact cutting budgets tends to make waste worse as projects to change or update tech or processes and cancelled due to cost and it’s back to the old way.
          I see this in the corporate world all the time. For want of a few hundred dollars we waste ten times as much.

          We need to find better ways of encouraging efficiency than simply cutting funding.

      • Agree with you wholly, I speak with experience having contracted with 3 NSW State Government Departments.

        Also, I have contracted with some huge companies (AMP being one of them), that are completely if not just as slack as a Government Department.

        It is not just the Government that is bloated. I too know a few people that have been unemployed for quite a while now and I hope it doesn’t become infective. Can only hope.

        • Well here at the coalface of crucial public service delivery (education), I can assure you that in the 15 years I have been here, there was never anything resembling “fat”. If there was, it was trimmed away before I arrived. Then they started cutting into the meat. If they keep cutting, they’ll end up sawing through bone.

          That’s at the coalface though – might be flabbier higher up in the bureaucracy, i really don’t know.

          • Yes that’s also correct, my contract with the N.S.W Department of Lands was a very different experience to that which nurses in the public health system have to endure.

            It maybe not correct to say slack, it is more like the (amount of) procedures one needs to adhere to in order to get information or internal services within some departments.

            But I will say the ‘slackest’ I’ve ever experienced was in AMP and a department in the Conmanswealth Bank. It was like bodies without souls. Private sector can be just as bad.

  2. Bullhawks on the endangered species list.
    One particular Bullhawk has shed his skin rather too quickly and metamorphosised back into a housing bull:
    ” Many will argue that official RBA rates should be going down, while the more sensible heads will probably conclude that the RBA can wait until the next inflation print in late October. Great news for all borrowers and the housing market especially, which is the most interest rate sensitive sector of the economy.

    Posted by Christopher Joye at 11:45 AM”

  3. All anybody has to do is look at the last 7 months of jobs. Feb +1.8K, Mar +7.7, Apr -8.6, May +43.3, Jun -29.4, Jul -0.5, Aug -0.1k, (Revised Numbers) . So in the last 7 months Australia has created 22K jobs. Since Australia NEEDS to create 15K a month, just to keep up population growth, Which is 107k jobs. Interesting to note, the Censes jobs started in May to October, which could explain the jump in May, So they are not real jobs created and just part time. Amazingly, taken from the ABS website “Australian Bureau of Statistics is looking for 43,000 people” If U take out those 43k, well Australia has lost 20K jobs in the first 7 months of this year. (As well not creating the 107k that needed)

    So what we have is un employment going up, GDP on the 7th Sept will be negative and will 100% show we were in recession in Jan to Jun 2011. Like to see how Swanny going to explain all this to the Australian people on the 7th Sept.

    • I don’t believe these numbers. There’s clearly something wrong with the survey. This is hysteria from vested interests and their lackeys. Nothing other than a strong result could have been credible. They should just fix the survey or do away with it.

      • “vested interests”??.
        We can only go by the numbers the ABS gives.
        Unless you think some “lackeys” have infiltrated the ABS and feeding in the wrong data, for ulterior motives.

        This is a new one. What next Abbott’s got people fudging the data for his own political purposes.

      • I have a job. My mate Woz does too. Also my sister. Anecdotal evidence would point at 100% employment.

        Move along, nothing to see here.

  4. We need some government stimulus. We have seen a number of failed schemes such as cash for clunkers and house insulation at different places but I don’t think that anyone tried car insulation.

  5. Oh they want the figure to rise a little to justify a rate cut. Banks are hurting. Nobody is borrowing. Growth in bank profits will slow shortly, and that will facilitate capital flight and perhaps a rating downgrade.

    Never forget the RBA is there to protect the banks.

    • oh, and the government too of course because they’ll be the ones bailling them out when it all goes pear-shaped.

  6. I nearly pulled over at 5:30 update on ABC radio…

    Shane Oliver……”We expect rate cuts sooner than later”..

    Utter capitulation. If he was humble enough, he would have admitted that his analysis was well….just in consensus with other bull-hawks..But no…blame it on GLOBAL MARKET TURBULENCE…But hey! don’t worry Mining boom is well alive. Other than that it will only be an “Emergency rate settings” to support the economy.Talk about oxymorons..

    • Bob Farrell’s rule number 9: When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.

      Although our economy looks screwed I think that RBA will be much more careful this time with reducing rates. If they panic and slash by 0.5% next month they will lose all their forecasting credibility (it they ever had any).