Trading Day: 22nd July

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped higher this morning and is now 38 points or 0.84% higher at 4594 points.

Other Asian markets are up higher, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.9% to 10095 points, and the Hang Seng up strongly 1.35% at 22255 points.

Other risk assets are mixed, with the AUD up strongly at 1.0825 against the USD, whilst gold sneaks below $1600 again, now at $1590 USD an ounce. WTI crude is up at $99.30 USD per barrel.

Movers and Shakers
It’s mainly green across the board, the biggest gains in the Industrials and Finance sectors. The banks are all up at least 2% (except 1.5% for CBA) with NAB the standout, up 2.6%

The resource twins BHP and RIO are having a flat day, down 0.39% and up 0.22% respectively, whilst my preferred offspring COH and CSL – are down slightly on AUD strength, down 0.15% and 0.57% respectively (and yes, still long both for now)

The big winners amongst ASX200 stocks are Connect East (CEU) on takeover, up 20%, Consolidated Media (CMJ) up 5.3%, and Bluescope Steel (BSL) up 4.5%
The biggest losers include Austar (AUN) down 19%, News Corp (NWS) down 1.3% and Platinum Australia (PLA) down again, this time 1%

Daily Chart
The daily chart clearly shows a rebound from the the 4450 points low – a double bottom pattern formed with today’s move reaching the previous “bounce” level around 4600 points. This will not equate into a bullish uptrend until the previous high of 4650 points is taken out, a hard task given the strong resistance at circa 4600 points. A bull market rally will not get underway until we are clear of the 4700 point level.

Daily chart for ASX200

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart shows prices continue to gravitate below the 260 day weighted moving average and below the long term trendline from the March 2009 lows. Looking to the left of the chart, the May to August 2010 period looks eerily familiar to the current weekly volatility.

ASX200 Weekly chart - click to enlarge


Long-only investors (via index ETF’s or warrants) should keep their powder dry until a weekly break above the 4700 point level/260 day moving average.

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Comments

  1. The banking index has been looking quite oversold for a while, so would expect a decent bounce running into the 2H 2011.

    But it will be in the shadow of a bear market in this sector, so esp for the big 4 banks, the upside is limited to its trading range and downside limited to their dividend yield.

  2. “We are the hedge fund of Australian business media. We are business media noir. We are MacroBusiness”

    I am not really sure that this fits in with my understanding of the motivations for Macrobusiness. Please let me know if I am wrong.

    This seems to be a article full of asset speculation, and info I can get in the regular news……..

    • This daily post is to provide information about what the Aussie (and Asian) share markets are doing and to provide insight into your equity investments (or lack thereof).

      I also do a weekly roundup and analysis of the Aussie equity market.

      You may or may not have noticed we are not part of the rah-rah (i.e perma-bull or perma-bear) crowd – we call it as we see it.

      And finally – what are you doing reading the regular news? 😀