ABS Lending Finance for May is out and the news looks better than Consumer Confidence suggests. All major categories (with the exception of leasing) rose modestly, with business finance looking strongest. These figures look more robust than the RBA’s credit aggregates for business lending, which showed a flat result for May overall. Nonetheless, there has been some stabilisation in business lending in the past few months.
MAY KEY POINTS
HOUSING FINANCE FOR OWNER OCCUPATION
- The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.1% in trend terms and the seasonally adjusted series rose 2.2%.
PERSONAL FINANCE
- The trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 0.4%. Revolving credit commitments fell 1.3%, while fixed lending commitments rose 0.4%.
- The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose 3.8%. Revolving credit commitments rose 6.4% and fixed lending commitments rose 1.7%.
COMMERCIAL FINANCE
- The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 0.2%. Revolving credit commitments rose 1.4%, while fixed lending commitments fell 0.3%.
- The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 8.7%. Fixed lending commitments rose 9.0%, after an 11.2% fall in the previous month. Revolving credit commitments rose 8.0%.
LEASE FINANCE
The trend series for the value of total lease finance commitments fell 0.1% and the seasonally adjusted series fell 5.7%.
Perhaps May was a bit of a reprieve before gloom returned in June. Or, there is some kind of disconnect between sentiment and action. But across the board, personal, housing and business credit has stabilised in the past few months (at a low base). Seems to me that without some further shock, the services economy is bouncing along a bottom.
