Trading Day: a reversal in risk?

The S&P/ASX 200 opened sharply higher, reacting to the first up day in six on overseas equity markets, and at midday is up 15 points or 0.34% to 4564 points.

Asian markets are generally up, with the Nikkei up over 1.2%, the Hang Seng continuining its decline, dropping 0.5% and Singapore and NZ steady.

Other risk assets are also up, with the AUD back above 1.06 against the USD, gold up to $1544 USD an ounce. WTI crude continues to rise, now at $102.07 USD per barrel.

Movers and Shakers
Its mainly green across the board again, but day traders have made some profits intraday. CBA is slightly down as is NAB, with ANZ up weakly and WBC steady. The major resource stocks BHP and RIO are up 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

In other ASX200 stocks, Paladin has reversed and is up nearly 5%, as is Incitec Pivot (IPL). Macmahon Holdings (MAH) and Paperlink (PPX) are both down over 3% whilst Energy Resources Australia (ERA) continues to nose dive, down almost 2%

ASX200 remains at critical support level
The market is in a decelerating pattern in its correction phase and remains at the Japanese earthquake lows just above 4500 points.

The daily chart shows the market has found a (temporary?) bottom at just below 4600 points. A break below this level would extend the correction, with the next target at 4200 points – the lows in the May flash crash of 2010.

The weekly chart still shows the key difference between the Japan earthquake/MENA riots low of March and now: the market closed the week above the 4600 support level in the former, whilst it is on track to close 2 successive weeks below. However today and yesterday’s buying support (shown by the long shadow or tail on the last candle) indicates a possible bottom, and the probability of an impulse rally is rising.

Daily chart of ASX200 - red line is 15 day moving average


Weekly chart of ASX200 - orange lines show support and resistance

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