ABS March quarter dwelling commencements are out and show an onging decline in housing commencements, which is still a give back following last year’s FHOG. For apartments, however, there’s a big seasonally adjusted jump:
MARCH KEY POINTS
DWELLING UNITS COMMENCED
- The trend estimate for the total number of dwelling units commenced fell 1.9% in the March quarter 2011 following a fall of 2.6% in the December quarter 2010.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for the total number of dwelling units commenced rose 3.1% in the March quarter which follows a fall of 4.0% in the December quarter.NEW HOUSES
- The trend estimate for new private sector house commencements fell 4.8% in the March quarter following a fall of 5.4% in the December quarter.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for new private sector house commencements fell 1.9% in the March quarter following a fall of 6.7% in the December quarterOTHER RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
- The trend estimate for new private sector other residential building commencements rose 5.3% in the March quarter following a rise of 4.9% in the December quarter.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for new private sector other residential building rose 14.7% in the March quarter following a rise of 6.1% in the December quarter.
The jump is obvious in the seaonally adjusted data graphed below state by state, led by QLD, NSW and of course, the current king of apartment construction, Melbourne. If you want a hint about what’s been driving Victoria’s general economic outperformance over the past couple of years, you can do worse than finger this chart. The data flow has been nasty today and I don’t want to get too negative, but Melbourne’s apartment boom looks a real worry to me.
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