Car sales crash

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Governor Glenn may still be feeling feisty about the economy but it’s becoming increasingly obvious that he’s flying solo. ABS May car sales are out and can only be described as a crash, down 7.6% month on month and 14.5% year on year. These sales levels were first seen in 2003 and again in December 2008 (from where they went lower still). One possible bright spot is that biggest falls are in QLD and VIC, suggesting that some of the pullback is the post-flood bounce unwinding as insurance claims dissipate. The ABS also notes supply disruptions for Japanese cars emanting from the Tsunami and nuclear crisis has had some effect.

MAY KEY POINTS

TOTAL NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES

  • Trend – The May 2011 trend estimate (80 562) has decreased by 1.3% when compared with April 2011.
  • Seasonally Adjusted – The May 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate for new motor vehicle sales (76 732) decreased by 7.6% when compared with April 2011.

SALES BY TYPE OF VEHICLE

  • Trend – When comparing national trend estimates for May 2011 with April 2011, sales of Passenger vehicles decreased by 1.5%. Sports utility and Other vehicles decreased by 1.2% and 0.7% respectively.
  • Seasonally Adjusted – When comparing seasonally adjusted estimates for May 2011 with April 2011, sales of Passenger vehicles, Sports utility and Other vehicles decreased by 7.5%,10.6% and 4.5% respectively

SALES BY STATE

  • Seven of the eight states and territories have experienced a decrease in the trend estimate for new motor vehicle sales when comparing May 2011 with April 2011. Tasmania recorded the largest percentage decrease with 3.3%, followed by Victoria and South Australia, both 2.6%. Queensland recorded an increase of 0.2% over the same period.
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, sales of new motor vehicles decreased in all eight states and territories for May 2011 when compared with April 2011. Victoria recorded the largest percentage decrease of 12.3%, followed by the Australian Capital Territory (8.5%) and Queensland (7.3%).
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.