Trading Day – 11th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is up almost 1% this afternoon, after digesting last night’s Budget. Asian markets are up generally, with the Nikkei up 0.5%, the Hang Seng steady and Singapore up slightly. The AUD is rising past 1.085 again against the USD and 87 against the Yen (which is highly correlated with the ASX200)

Local news include CBA updating its 3rd quarter results (higher, but arrears up over 10%), and David Jones and Myers sales results (both down) and forecasting minimal or slightly negative profit growth.

Current conditions suggest a “buy box” is building, similar to the November 2010 lows. The index has not closed below the 200 day moving average in both of these cases, which adds weight to an accumulation phase.

The major trend and support line remains at 4700 points – a close back to below this area would be a clear sell/short zone.

50/200 day moving averages (pink and grey lines)

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  1. I disagree – the Feb/March area was way above support (200 day moving average) and was clearly the right hand shoulder in a H and S formation.

    But the current stance is still sideways – this is no runaway bull market and our market reacts more and more to the Asian markets instead of the US (which is running away)