The NAB April Business Survey is out and it’s got something for everyone. For the rate doves, the lead Business Conditions Index softened:
And the internals dropped pretty substantially:
However, two other key indexes for the RBA are strongly inflationary. First and foremost, labour:
And employment:
In sum, I would say that despite the weakness, this survey has eaten away at one of the RBA’s primary reasons for not hiking: that labour constraints have not been broad based. I’ll give this one to the hawks by a nose. Full survey available below.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)
- UBS: SME calamity to smash banks - July 21, 2020
- For sale. One wolf warrior liver - July 21, 2020
- What’s happened to Chris Joye’s housing bull market? - July 21, 2020
YOU MAY ALSO BE INTERESTED IN
UBS: SME calamity to smash banks
Via the excellent Jonathon Mott at UBS: Direct
Victoria records 374 new COVID-19 infections
The nightmare continues, with Victoria recording
JobKeeper to extend and pretend until March 2021
JobKeeper will reportedly be extended for
Consumer confidence down some more
Where the virus goes the consumer
“In sum, I would say that despite the weakness, this survey has eaten away at one of the RBA’s primary reasons for not hiking: that labour constraints have not been broad based. I’ll give this one to the hawks by a nose.”
Mate are you kidding? From the report:
“Over the past year, the strongest labour costs increases have been in mining, and the weakest have been in wholesale and retail.”
and …
“Trend employment was stronger in all industries except manufacturing, and remained by far the strongest in mining, followed by finance/business/property and transport & utilities. Relatively weak (negative) trend employment is persisting in manufacturing, construction and wholesale.”
Manufacturing, construction and wholesale are sizeable sectors to be experiencing negative trends. Looks like the RBA got it right.
It is the balance of strength and weakness that matters. The index has risen two months in a row. Labour above all else will spook the RBA…
2 rises in a row without any impact on prices. What is the margin or error in this survey anyway …pretty strange not having it stated in an easy to find place, i.e. do we know these moves are statistically significant or is this just another example of junk content for the mass media masquerading as research and analysis?
+ 1
The RBA takes it seriously I’m told.
Lets hope then that they bother to determine if the survey results they base decisions on is statistically significant.
I guess what I’m getting at is whether or not this survey is any better than those on Family Feud.
Marginally!
Perhaps the RBA should use this in their meetings:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83LNmNdh5Sw