NAB survey goes to the hawks

The NAB April Business Survey is out and it’s got something for everyone. For the rate doves, the lead Business Conditions Index softened:

And the internals dropped pretty substantially:

However, two other key indexes for the RBA are strongly inflationary. First and foremost, labour:

And employment:

In sum, I would say that despite the weakness, this survey has eaten away at one of the RBA’s primary reasons for not hiking: that labour constraints have not been broad based. I’ll give this one to the hawks by a nose. Full survey available below.

APRIL NAB SURVEY

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. Armand Tamzarian

    “In sum, I would say that despite the weakness, this survey has eaten away at one of the RBA’s primary reasons for not hiking: that labour constraints have not been broad based. I’ll give this one to the hawks by a nose.”

    Mate are you kidding? From the report:

    “Over the past year, the strongest labour costs increases have been in mining, and the weakest have been in wholesale and retail.”

    and …

    “Trend employment was stronger in all industries except manufacturing, and remained by far the strongest in mining, followed by finance/business/property and transport & utilities. Relatively weak (negative) trend employment is persisting in manufacturing, construction and wholesale.”

    Manufacturing, construction and wholesale are sizeable sectors to be experiencing negative trends. Looks like the RBA got it right.

    • Armand Tamzarian

      2 rises in a row without any impact on prices. What is the margin or error in this survey anyway …pretty strange not having it stated in an easy to find place, i.e. do we know these moves are statistically significant or is this just another example of junk content for the mass media masquerading as research and analysis?