Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to yesterday’s or earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe.
S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down 16 points to 4867. The market is hovering above its 15 day moving average and slowly decelerating. Note the short term momentum oscillator on the chart below, combined with the 15 day moving average. Respect of the latter would support the conclusion that this is a dip/sideways action, not a continued correction. click to enlarge
Winners
Amcor (AMC) medium uptrend continues, pullback this morning.
AMP: “overbought but now steady” – very strong support below $5.70, looks like consolidating for next move up. Long on breakout.
ANZ : tapering – down 0.4% – tighten stops.
CBA : more tapering – down 0.5% – tighten to $52.30 or so
Crown (CWN): “starting to breakout of congestion” – after a strong close yesterday, is down 2% today – this looks like a fade by insto’s, but I could be wrong. Keep stops tight.
Lynas (LYC): Losing momentum and looking toppy, but still well within medium term trend.
Newcrest (NCM): “still watch closely” And the Turd – along with The Bullion Baron (a regular guest poster here) truly one of the better (if not unique) precious metals blogs out there. Very good stuff if you’re into trading gold/silver. NCM is up almost 2%. Stay the course.
TEN : “coming up to resistance at $1.45-1.50” thats four days now – I usual exit after 5 if the movement is less than 3%. Tighten stops and watch closely.
WBC : maybe all of this tapering (love that word) is because some are reading Prof. Keen’s latest research? (no longer available on BusSpec for some strange reason…)
Wesfarmers : (WES) still trending up nicely on the back of WOW weakness.
Worleyparsons (WOR): “the medium term (November 2010 to now) trend is still well in place” – up 0.77% at midday. BTFD here.
Avoid:
AGL Energy (AGK): Converging on its medium term trend but no signs of breakout here yet.
Alumina (AWC): Tuesday: “End of short term trend for now” – pausing and going sideways – waiting for Chinese GDP figures?
ASX Down a little more, but not oversold yet. Bottom pickers get your fingers ready.
BHP-Billiton (BHP) down almost 0.8% but this is decelerating just like the wider index (derr – it IS the index!) Could be some good re-entry points coming up if you still believe in the commodity/QE story (and why not?)
Boral (BLD): “Could breakout from here” – not yet – the trading channel is defined by $5.20 and $4.96, wait for breakouts outside these levels.
Cochlear (COH): my darling COH is dropping again – now below value at just over $81. Buy points below $79 or so are good for long term investors, even in the face of a strong AUD, COH will do well, in my opinion.
Fortescue Metals (FMG): up 1% but still at point of control/central oscillating point – watch for a close above $6.80 to go long
Myer (MYR): more monkeys creating a short term rally. Very strong resistance at $3.30, with strong likelihood of a trading range forming around a $3.10-$3.40 channel as we all sort out if the consumer is dead or alive or a zombie wearing an Ed Hardy shirt.
NAB : down 1% – too many Gremlins at HQ again – NAB has failed to close past resistance at $26.40 5 days in a row – this is a classic “time stop” action. Out. Schnell.
Origin Energy (ORG): “No more buyers here.” Technically still within trend (see chart below) but is hitting the bottom end of that channel. I’ll keep an eye on this one, but as I said earlier in the week, good time to book profits.
click to enlarge
OZ Minerals (OZL): Down almost 1%, but decelerating on very strong volume. Stay away for now, but good re-entry points might be coming up soon.
QBE“Probably will be rangebound for the near term.” – and then some – market is unsure what’s happening hear. Avoid until price breaks.
Rio Tinto (RIO): down slightly after The Golden Sack downgraded the commodity story news has sunk in. My gut is telling me we are in for range-bound trading in the short term.
Woodside (WPL): “I would consider a short if oil continues to correct, but finding some support”. Looks like the market is waiting for BHP to do something. Stand aside for now.
Losers
Billabong (BBG): yesterday’s bullish candle with a long tail suggested support, but still down 1% – the AUD will not help here. If you have a longer term bullish view on the AUD, then stay away from BBG. Not a time to be picking bottoms.
Bluescope (BSL): Up nearly 0.8% this morning. Thursday – “Tighten stops”. Finding support at $1.90
Caltex (CTX): “Watch closely if it closes below support at $14.80” – BAZINGA. Down almost 2% – I like this one!
Computershare (CPU): “but unlikely to rally from here.” – no I was right! This was a fade – down almost 2%, but with a long tail indicating intra-day support. Its the medium term trend that matters here – the 63 day moving average is tracking Costello’s dog nicely.
CSL: “eeep. Slipping” – yep, traders have stepped in and are shorting CSL two times to Saturday. Support at $34 – value is around $33. Damn you strong/high AUD!
CSR: down another 0.31%, below support still.
Fairfax Media(FXJ) “trying to claw back but I reckon its just short covering” looks like cats bouncing here. Down 0.3% so far – watch the close for signals.
Gunns (GNS) – closed down 1% yesterday, another 1% down today.
Harvey Norman (HVN): unchanged. Look at the chart below – there’s a big foot pushing HVN down (from the boot of the Australian consumer?) Still in a medium term downtrend, with daylight below the share price. My target zone is $2.60 to $2.70
click to enlarge
James Hardie (JHX): up 1% – tighten stops but momentum is against the trend.Macquarie Group (MQG): down slightly, and clustering around $34 support, tighten stops.
Onesteel (OST): Up slightly on rising volume, but this is bottom picking IMO. Another Chinese data watcher?
OZ Minerals (OZL): I said Tuesday “tighten stops ($1.58 or so). Reversal possible” – Wednesday “Down 3% so far, stops breached” – today: down over 3%. We like short shorts.
Qantas (QAN): The Flying Kangaroo is still hopping along. Investors stay clear as usual, but traders look for a break in local support to add to shorts.
Suncorp (SUN) down another 0.5% but slowing down – tighten stops.
Tatts (TTS): “Support is coming up” – yep up nearly 1%. Still in a medium term downtrend, but higher lows may signal a return.
Westfield (WDC):”support at $9 will be likely target.” yep – still bouncing around there. Cover short if closes above $9.15 or so.
Woolies (WOW): Although outed as a Bogan Company today, WOW, is still a favourite. Still correcting and down a little at midday. As I continue to say – in a medium term bearish sideways stance, but has very strong support around $26. Aggressive traders could sell Bull Put Spreads with upper strike of $26 and investors buy in at a similar price.
Disclosure: The Prince is a full time equities trader, running a personal account. I may have positions (long and short) in some or all of the securities mentioned above. This post is not advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Do your own research and consult an adviser before allocating capital.