Trading Day: 12th April

S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO

The S&P/ASX200 is down over 1 percent or 50 points to 4920 (update: 1pm EST) after weak overnight action. The V-shaped rebound is slowing down, as exuberance gives way to reality.

Volume down, prices stacking above 50/200 moving average

Winners

AMP: still overbought, but bids keep coming.

ANZ: uptrend is not slowing down! Consensus rules – banks are back.

Cochlear (COH): small dip in the AUD and buyers have stepped in. Disclosure: I freaken love this company, but it is approaching value

Commonwealth Bank (CBA): as I said banks are back. Puts are getting cheaper too…… 😀

Lynas (LYC): up another 2% plus.

National Australia Bank (NAB): baby got bank. Gone straight past resistance. Probable dip and then underway again.

Newcrest (NCM): come back to earth as gold consolidates, but good time to BTFD

OZ Minerals (OZL): Although “Good uptrend, far away from resistance” tighten stops ($1.58 or so). Reversal possible.

Primary Health (PRY): Ouch – close revealed midday scan was too early. Still consolidating after good uptrend.

Ramsay Health (RHC): still trying to break through resistance at $19 – reverse position if it fails as volume is slipping.

Rio Tinto (RIO): “about to hit long term resistance at $89” – indeed, but if you believe in commodity prices (what else is there to believe in?) BTFD .

Westpac (WBC): last and probably least, WBC has gapped up higher on the open as the consensus takes hold of the “cheap” bank stocks.

Avoid:

Alumina (AWC): market’s not liking the good JV result with Alcoa – down 4%. End of short term trend for now.

BHP-Billiton (BHP) has failed to beat its all time high, even though arguably is a better proposition than 3 years ago. Waaaay overbought.

BHP approaches all time high

Fortescue Metals (FMG): market not happy with fall in FMG output for March qtr. Down almost 2%

JB Hi-Fi (JBH): another favourite, but the market is digesting its recent buyback plan. Oscillating around point of control at approx. $19.20 or so.

Oilsearch (OSH): “Overbought though” – yep, down 1.8% with a hammer candle.

Origin Energy (ORG): like Orica action is toppy and inside bearish. Never a good sign – take profits.

TEN: another dog comes back to its kennel after a rebound rally, but still in sideways bearish stance.

WAN: marriage complete, but new entity not yet listed, so no life here – stay away

Woodside (WPL): That was fun – where to from here? Down 1.7% (nothing in scheme of things) but within its trading range. Again, faith is needed in commodity prices to step on this one.

Losers

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL): this family walks in to a ……closed below support yesterday, tanking this morning. Poker face?

Aquarius Platinum (AQP): head and shoulders pattern has completed its formation: watch for a close below $5.40

Billabong (BBG): approaching support at $7.30 – time to cover if bounces off this.

Bluescope (BSL): down another 1% this morning. Short continues.

Caltex (CTX): As I said yesterday “Watch closely if it closes below support at $14.80” – down to there now, -1% for the day.

Computershare (CPU): resumes its medium term downtrend. Some support at $9, but not surprised if it falls further.

CSR: yesterday “watch for action around $3.20 if support comes in to buy up” – tail is long and is oversold. Cover if close above $3.22 or so

GPTAustralia’s biggest A-REIT is slipping: wait for confirmation by indicators for possible short term downtrend.

Harvey Norman (HVN): Down another 1% or so. Support at $2.82 but could fall to March 2009 lows ($2)

Hardly Normal: because you should pay more

James Hardie (JHX): I said “Some support below $6, but watch out if failed” Its failed….

Macquarie Group (MQG): still falling, but Rate of Change is slowing down – remember support at $34..

Onesteel (OST): returned to medium term downtrend, down another 2%

Qantas (QAN): Support coming in as oil prices dip slightly.

Tabcorp (TAH): Speccie based on pokies “reform”? Support at $7 is target.

Westfield (WDC): still not promising – support at $9 will be likely target.

It’s gold! Gold for Australia!

With a small dip in the overnight spot price – along with its kissing cousin the AUD/USD – I’m watching a few junior and senior Aussie gold producers for possible “buy the dip” actions. Ashburton Minerals (ATN) Cobar Consolidated (CCU), Manas Resources (MSR) and Medusa Mining (MML) tick the box here, whilst Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) is still struggling to swallow its recent Dominion Mining takeover. Newcrest Mining (NCM) is also dipping, after approaching strong resistance levels.

Disclosure: The Prince is a full time equities trader, running a personal account. I may have positions (long and short) in some or all of the securities mentioned above. This post is not advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Do your own research and consult an adviser before allocating capital.

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