Housing market “settling” as vendors accept lower prices

CoreLogic’s preliminary auction results for the weekend report a slight rebound in clearances; albeit off relatively thin volumes. Across the combined capital cities, the clearance rate rose was 59.5% – up from 58.8% the previous weekend (later revised to 54.0% at final figures). Importantly, both Sydney and Melbourne reported preliminary clearance rates above 60% –

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Links 8 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Rate hikes are not the right answer to “wage-price persistence” – Interest.co.nz CEOs Blame Remote Workers for Slow Sales, Earnings Shortfalls – Bloomberg It’s time to ban private jets – or at least tax them to the ground – The Guardian ‘They are not slowing down’: The rise of


Weekend Sundries: 6 – 7 August 2022

Boomengineering For Arthur. Cervelo have notoriously weak derailleur hangers which caused catastrophic damage when Di2 went into spokes also buckling wheel. Made a new stainless height adjustable hanger fixed to axle incorporating axle angle ajustment Still working on it (work in progress)   Geoff McVeigh Royal Mail Hotel built 1895 at Lake Cargelligo Commonwealth Bank


Weekend Reading: 6-7 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Wall Street Bonuses Poised to Plunge Following Slowdown in Deals – Bloomberg Oil Falls Below $90 For First Time Since War as Demand Slows – Yahoo Pfizer CEO Complains to Investors About Lower Drug Prices Under Inflation Reduction Act – The Intercept UN head says Big Oil’s “grotesque” greed


Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are having a solid session to finish the trading week as markets position themselves for what is likely to be a robust US unemployment print tonight. The USD is mixed versus most of the major currencies, although the Australian dollar is caught between the RBA playing catchup and the Fed as it hovers


New Zealand housing market “weak and getting weaker”

Prominent economist Tony Alexander has released new survey datasets on New Zealand’s housing market, which have been summarised below. Alexander believes New Zealand housing is “weak and getting weaker”, with more price falls likely over coming months. ____________________________________________________________________________________________ New Zealand’s housing market is weak and getting weaker. The number of sales in June was down


The Greens are right about privatisation

Greens leader Adam Bandt yesterday unloaded on former Labor Prime Minister Paul Keating, labelling him the “patron saint of privatisation”, claiming he started a rot that has left Australians worse-off: Mr Bandt branded Labor as a “neoliberal” party which had drifted to the far-right… Bandt said the former prime minister had a “short tongue but


Labor finalises details of federal anti-corruption commission

The federal government aims to introduce legislation to establish a national integrity commission (NIC) by the end of 2022. Independent MP Helen Haines has welcomed indications from the government that the anti-corruption commission will be overseen by a joint parliamentary committee. However, some crossbenchers contend that the committee should be chaired by a non-government MP.


Productivity Commission: Axe import tariffs once and for all

Around 90% of imported goods now come into Australia tariff-free, with cars, furniture and knitted goods among the remaining 10% of goods on which tariffs apply. The federal government currently collects around $1.5 billion from tariffs, or just 0.3% of its total tax take, and the amount that it collects will fall further as new


Labor readies to unload immigration dump truck

According to The AFR, the Department of Home Affairs informed the incoming Labor government in a brief that there were over 962,000 active non-humanitarian visa applications on hand. It also informed ministers Clare O’Neil and Andrew Giles that 130,000 of the applications could be processed more quickly if category-specific visa caps were lifted: “The cap


Stocks fight the Fed!

Charlie McElligott at Nomura: SUMMARY: Despite a really fragile macro backdrop of “higher (and tighter) for longer” which continues to bleed growth sentiment—yet against an “FCIeasing” driven by risky-asset reflexivity on the perception that “growth slowdown” will see Fed back-down from their ongoing “hawkish” rhetoric—weare in the midst of an angst-ridden pain-trade higher in Stocks


Macro Morning

Wall Street stalled overnight on some disappointing earnings while European markets continued their surge as the Bank of England was the latest to raise interest rates. Currency markets are still prepping for tonight’s US non-farm payrolls aka unemployment print, with the USD pulling back most of its recent gains particularly against Euro, although Pound Sterling


China’s deflationary tsunami builds

Pantheon with the note. This has only just begun. Supply-Side Stresses are Fading, Bringing Hope of Disinflation Regional PMIs for July were fairly downbeat, pointing to fading domestic and global demand. But a more positive aspect was the ongoing easing of supply chain issues, in contrast to past lockdownreopening cycles in China. Weaker demand undoubtedly


Australian dollar bounces as oil breaks

DXY was down solidly last night as EUR rallies: AUD took its cue: But oil broke, a distinct break of pattern with just about everything: Weirdly, metals lifted. If oil keeps falling then this won’t last: Miners were flat even as iron ore tanks: EM popped: But not junk: The curve is sinking ever deeper


RBA crashes Sydney house prices

CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which measures price changes across Australia’s five major capital cities, fell another 0.22% in the week ended 5 August – the 13th consecutive weekly decline: Once again, the fall in dwelling values was driven by Sydney (-0.29%), Melbourne (-0.34%) and Brisbane (-0.14%), whereas Adelaide (+0.12%) and Perth (+0.07%) recorded rises:


Albo readies another lost decade for Australia

In last year’s Christmas Special Report, we argued that Australia was “sowing the seeds of another ‘lost decade’”, because “Australia appears committed to repeat the same policy mistakes and poor outcomes that were experienced over the 2010s “lost decade” whereby the economy and living standards stagnated in per capita terms”. We argued that “Australian households


Links 5 September 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Pfizer CEO Complains to Investors About Lower Drug Prices Under Inflation Reduction Act – The Intercept The Fed is fighting inflation. So is remote work – CNBC U.S., China economies stall as tensions rise over Pelosi Taiwan visit – NewsWeek Oil giants reap record profits from war, pandemic and


Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are having a fairly solid session, although Aussie stocks are missing out on the action despite the record trade surplus. The USD is holding on to its overnight reversal gains with the Australian dollar trying to clawback its post RBA rate rise downtrend while Yen continues to weaken. Meanwhile oil prices are continuing


Trade surplus hits record high as Aussies go bust

Today, the ABS recorded the largest trade surplus in Australia’s history. In June, Australia’s trade surplus rose to $17,670 billion, up 66% year-0n-year: As expected, Australia’s giant surplus was driven by LNG and coal exports, which both soared to record highs: This follows a gigantic rise in prices owing to the Russia-Ukraine war: Sadly, the