US Economy


Trump betting odds plunge

It’s looking more like US presidential betting markets are today tied up with stock market liquidity: As said last week, I wonder if there is some relationship between stock market gains and those plumping for Trump, beyond simple sentiment. The polls are still strongly blue:   Though Trump has gained in swing states: I still


Betting odds surge to Trump

A bit silly in my book: Polling has lifted a bit: I wonder if the betting markets aren’t a little swayed by the broader stock market bubble in their own case of reverse Trump derangement syndrome. There’ll be some significant crossover in the punters. The virus is helping so there’s some support for the betting


Fake news alert. Bumbling Biden video edition

We owe readers an apology. Yesterday’s Twitter-sourced bumbling Biden video was fake news (h/t Wobbegong): fuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuck — Bes🌹 (@besf0rt) August 31, 2020 Buzzfeed with the scoop of what’s going on The White House and President Trump’s reelection campaign on Monday circulated two videos that had been manipulated to negatively portray presidential candidate Joe Biden.


Stephen Roach: US headed for double dip recession

Via Stephen Roach: The double dip is not a dance. It is the time-honored tendency of the US economy to relapse into recession after a temporary recovery. Over the years, it has happened far more often than not. Notwithstanding frothy financial markets, which currently are discounting the nirvana of an uninterrupted V-shaped recovery, there is


Betting markets charge Trump

The gap is closing fast: There’s still no comparable movement in polling: Perhaps betting markets are focussed on improving pandemic numbers, violent BLM protests and daily and material China-bashing. Of these, only the last looks like a Trump advantage to me. The first two look more like his fault. I remain of the view that


US virus cases falling, or just tests?

There have been state shutdowns of various degree to stop the second wave: But there is also this: The peaks coincide. I can’t find material suggesting this is the result of the supply of tests being limited, despite President Trump declaring he wanted just that at his Tulsa rally. Perhaps Republicans took him at his


Why Trump will win again

Via Thomas Greene at Medium: The Bronx of my childhood was a paradise. My street ran parallel to a section of the old Croton Aqueduct, by then long disused, which we kids called the Ackey. Along its banks grew trees and bushes and wild flowers forming a ribbon of thicket in which we played, and


Biden picks Harris as VP

by Chris Becker The US presidential race heated up overnight with presumptive Democratic nominee ex-Vice President Joe Biden picking Senator Kamala Harris, fulfilling his promise of a female VP choice. More from BBC: A year ago, the California senator had surged to the front of a crowded field of candidates on the back of a


US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 1.58 million non-farm payroll jobs (+1.47 million private sector), and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 10.5%. The usual indicators are somewhat useless again this month due to the


How El Trumpo can win the election

Via the FT: For Mr Trump to exploit this opportunity, he would need to drop his offensive tributes to symbols and leaders of the Confederacy and instead focus attention on what has been dubbed “cancel culture”. This cause was launched by young progressives who call out or boycott public figures for objectionable behaviour. But many other


US economy sinks deeper into COVID-depression

A little US economy chartathon for you. The consumer is operating at about 95% 2019 levels: Some areas are crushed, others better: Supply-side is rebounding but from very low levels: Business is buggered: And employment trashed: Fiscal is vital lifeline: As recovery slides away:      On increased lockdowns: As virus runs riot: Not exactly


Trump sets up tilt at tyranny

Via the AFR: Donald Trump may not accept the results of the forthcoming presidential election, he has said, setting the stage for an epic showdown in November. In a wild and contentious interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News, broadcast on Sunday (AEST), the President said he was “not a good loser” and was fully


US economy slumps into w-shaped depression

The US consumer has choked. Michigan Consumer Confidence: Consumer sentiment retreated in the first half of July due to the widespread resurgence of the coronavirus. The promising gain recorded in June was reversed, leaving the Sentiment Index in early July insignificantly above the April low (+1.4 points). Following the steepest two-month decline on record, it


Kanye drops out as Biden crusies to victory

What a bummer: On July 4, Kanye West tweeted that he was running for president. It was treated as one of his typical grandiloquent pronouncements. The tweet sparked a lot of opinion pieces, cable news segments, and even a question in an Oval Office interview with Donald Trump. But most people brushed it off. In a follow-up interview with Forbes, West pledged,


AEP: Dont be fooled. Markets are pricing for depression

Via Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Global bond markets refuse to ratify a V-shaped economic recovery. Futures contracts in fixed income derivatives are even more bearish, signalling nothing less than a worldwide deflationary slump as far as the eye can see. “If markets are pricing a ‘V’, they’re going about it in an odd way,” says Andrew Sheets


Westpac: Looming downside risks for US economy

By Westpac’s Elliot Clarke: Currently, the US economy finds itself between fiercely opposing forces. On the one hand is the rapid surge in jobs seen during May and June and the consequent swelling of recovery expectations. Opposing these forces however is the dramatic increase in the COVID-19 new case count this month to worrying new


Here comes the second wave of US COVID-19 deaths

by Chris Becker There was an unusual blip in the amount of Americans who died from COVID-19 reported on Tuesday, that could have been written off (as sick as that sounds) as the usual weekend anomaly, whereby deaths over the weekend – in this case a 3 day weekend due to 4th of July holiday


US services ISM boosted to recovery levels

by Chris Becker Well, if you open up your economy again – and damn the COVID-19 torpedoes – you’re going to get a recovery, and that’s what the June non-manufacturing ISM print showed overnight, providing yet another catalyst for US stocks to head higher. The texture from ISM: The ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business PMI


Biden polling lead narrows

Via RealClear today: It hasn’t changed the betting: And why would it? Deaths are still better: But Texas has exhausted its hospital capacity and it looks like they will climbe again from here: Still looks like the virus will determine the election.


US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: On Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June (Friday is a holiday).  The consensus is for an increase of 3.1 million non-farm payroll jobs, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 12.3%. Last month, the BLS reported 2,509,000 jobs added in May and the


Shane Oliver: Beware Biden bust

Via Shane Oliver: Introduction Investor focus on the US election waned earlier this year after socialist Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary race in favour of moderate Joe Biden. At the same time coronavirus became the main focus for markets. However, markets may soon start to pay more attention as the election is


Murdoch dumps Trump

Via Crikey: Murdoch watchers are about to see in real life how Lachlan handles the dilemma his father regularly faced: how to choose between the political right (in this case, Trump) and the likely political winner (almost certainly not Trump). It’s not just the polls, with averages currently showing Joe Biden up about 10%. It’s


Golden oldies abandon Trump

Hoocoodanode that killing your base would…well…kill your base? Via the FT: The coronavirus pandemic is eroding Donald Trump’s popularity among a group that was crucial to his 2016 victory — older white Americans — a worrying sign for the president’s re-election hopes. According to a New York Times-Siena College poll released last week, two-fifths of


US hurtles towards fiscal cliff

Via Bank of America: Fiscal: look out below In the face of the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal stimulus has poured into the economy. Washington has pushed in roughly $2.8tr of stimulus, equaling 13% of GDP while the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to $7.1tr. The rapid and forceful support on the policy front likely